Hormuz Tensions Threaten Global Food Security

The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) warned on April 14, 2026 that a prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a global food catastrophe, linking the risk to the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran. Officials said the blockage is already interfering with shipments of essential agricultural inputs that underpin crop production and food supply chains worldwide.

According to the United Nations body, 20% to 45% of key agrifood inputs depend on the Strait of Hormuz as a transit route. The FAO said the immediate impact has been muted because existing inventories have absorbed the shock so far, keeping food prices from rising at this stage.

FAO officials said the price picture could change if traffic remains stalled. The organization projected that continued disruption would push up commodity prices and retail food costs later in 2026 and into 2027, as delayed or reduced deliveries of inputs filter through planting decisions, yields, and distribution costs.

Maximo Torero, the FAO’s chief economist, and David Laborde, director of the FAO’s agrifood economics division, pointed to fertilizer as a central pressure point. They said nearly half of the world’s traded urea, along with significant volumes of other fertilizers, is exported from Gulf countries and typically moves through the Strait of Hormuz. The FAO said disruptions have already led fertilizer plants to cut back output or stop production entirely.

The FAO linked the shipping disruption to a major escalation in regional conflict. Officials said the United States imposed a naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz after ceasefire negotiations between Iranian and U.S. representatives failed. The FAO said the blockade followed an escalation in the U.S.-Israel war on Iran on February 28 , and that the action has halted traffic through the waterway.

Beyond agricultural inputs, the FAO said the disruption has also affected energy markets, with oil and gas prices now doubled compared to pre-war levels . The organization warned that higher energy costs can compound food-system pressures by raising expenses across fertilizer production, transport, and processing, even before shortages appear in consumer markets.

Officials said poorer countries face the greatest exposure. The FAO warned that delays in obtaining key inputs could reduce agricultural output, lift inflation, and contribute to slower global economic growth, with spillovers that extend beyond the region through trade, prices, and financial conditions. The organization’s assessment also underscored uncertainty around how long the traffic stoppage persists and how quickly supply chains can normalize once shipments resume.