WHO warns Congo Ebola deaths could exceed 2014–2016

The World Health Organization said on Wednesday that the Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo is trending in a way that could push deaths beyond levels seen in the 2014–2016 epidemic.

WHO officials said the current outbreak has logged at least 4,300 cases and more than 2,000 deaths since it was declared on May 15. They added that, if transmission continues along the same lines, fatalities could rise above the more than 11,000 deaths recorded during the 2014–2016 outbreak.

Early signals and diagnostic delays

WHO officials said epidemiological evidence indicates the virus WHO officials said epidemiological evidence indicates the virus may have been circulating since February, months before the outbreak was officially declared. They said that possibility would have made early containment more difficult by allowing infections to spread undetected. Officials also said some early infections were misdiagnosed as malaria or typhoid. They said those mistakes contributed to delays that hindered rapid identification and isolation measures aimed at interrupting transmission. Insecurity in eastern Congo restricts access According to WHO officials, insecurity in eastern Congo is limiting the response in key areas. They said teams are reaching only about 30% of identified cases, reducing the ability to isolate patients and carry out monitoring intended to break chains of spread.

Officials pointed to a central uncertainty

Whether access to patients can improve enough to slow transmission. They linked that question to security conditions and to practical limits associated with the specific viral strain involved in the outbreak.

Bundibugyo strain and limited medical tools

WHO officials said the outbreak is being driven by the rare Bundibugyo species of the Ebola virus. The WHO said there are no approved vaccines and no established therapeutic treatments for this strain, leaving responders with fewer medical options than in outbreaks involving other Ebola variants.

The organization said it is sponsoring clinical trials in the Democratic Republic of Congo to assess whether two existing antiviral therapies can improve survival among patients infected with Bundibugyo. Officials did not provide a timeline for when results might be available.

Alongside treatment studies, the WHO said research groups are pursuing vaccines designed for Bundibugyo. It said a team at the University of Oxford is developing a candidate using the same viral vector technology used in the Oxford-AstraZeneca Covid vaccine, while other groups are working on additional approaches.

WHO’s three-month target

The WHO said its immediate operational is to stabilize transmission rates within three months. Officials stressed that stabilization would not mean the outbreak is over, but would signal progress in slowing the spread.

WHO Africa director Dr Mohamed Janabi described the effort as a race with the virus, saying: “We are chasing the virus, the virus is ahead of us.”