UK's Protest Crackdown Could Fuel Climate Activism

A new academic study suggests that tougher policing and punishment of climate demonstrations in the United Kingdom may be producing the opposite of its intended effect. Research published in Nature Climate Change on Monday, May 20, 2024 , reports that criminalization measures are associated with greater willingness among activists to pursue disruptive tactics rather than deterring them.

The researchers, from the University of St Andrews , surveyed 1,375 climate campaigners. They found that people who had experienced repression—such as being arrested , fined , jailed , or surveilled —reported lower fear about taking part in future disruptive actions and a stronger sense of resolve. The study describes this pattern as a reduction in fear paired with increased determination among those directly affected by enforcement.

The paper also places the UK’s protest environment in a comparative context using arrest rates. It found that 17% of climate protests in the UK between 2019 and 2024 resulted in arrests, which the study says is well above the international average of 6.3% . The researchers present this gap as evidence that the UK has been a relatively high-arrest setting for climate protest activity during the period examined.

For campaigners who had not previously faced repression, the study reports a more mixed response. It says that anger or contempt toward the prospect of repression was linked to stronger intentions to protest, while heightened fear was linked to weaker intentions. In other words, anticipated enforcement could either mobilize or deter participation depending on whether it primarily triggered anger or fear.

The study argues that government crackdowns, including lengthy prison sentences for nonviolent protesters , may contribute to a hardening of activist identity and a stronger moral obligation to act. It also raises the possibility that intensified enforcement could push some activity into less visible forms, citing examples such as cutting internet cables .

The researchers present this as a risk pathway rather than a certainty, and the study’s findings are framed as a challenge to policies designed to reduce disruptive climate demonstrations.

For markets and politics, the findings matter because protest policing and sentencing policies can shape the operating environment for transport networks, public services, and businesses that may be affected by disruptive actions. The study’s central uncertainty is how far these reported shifts in fear, anger, and resolve translate into real-world changes in protest frequency, tactics, and targets over time, particularly as enforcement approaches evolve.