England Sees Spike in Special Education Plans Ahead of Reforms

Local authorities and educational establishments across England are observing a marked increase in requests for Education, Health and Care Plans (EHCPs). This surge is attributed to families seeking to secure statutory support for their children before anticipated government reforms to the special educational needs and disabilities (SEND) system take effect. These reforms are expected to narrow future EHCP eligibility to those with the most profound needs.

The number of children requiring such statutory support is projected to double to 10 percent by 2029, up from 5 percent in 2025. This forecast builds on an 11 percent annual increase recorded over the past two years. This accelerated demand is placing considerable financial strain on local councils, many of which are already grappling with significant deficits in their high-needs budgets.

Rising Demand and Fiscal Strain

Forecasts indicate that the total number of EHCPs could surpass 840,000 by the 2028-2029 academic year. This figure exceeds current government estimations. Bill Revans, representing the County Councils Network and a Liberal Democrat leader for Somerset council, highlighted a sharp uptick in assessment requests following the government's reform announcements made in February.

This influx is severely testing existing resources, compelling schools to manage an unprecedented volume of assessments. Headteachers have characterized the sheer number of requests as 'unreal,' with certain secondary schools expecting a doubling of incoming Year 7 students who hold EHCPs. These plans serve as legal agreements between local authorities and families in England, detailing essential support for children and young people up to the age of 25, facilitating access to additional funding or specialized educational placements.

Government Reforms and Budgetary Impact

Currently, more than 530,000 school-aged children possess EHCPs, while an additional 1.3 million have identified special needs, according to official data. The government's long-term objective, set for 2030, is to transition to a model that prioritizes earlier intervention and integrated specialist support within mainstream schools.

Some components of these planned reforms, such as the 'experts in hand' scheme that deploys specialists to mainstream schools and nurseries, are scheduled to commence this year. Schools Minister Georgia Gould confirmed that the government is carefully reviewing responses to its white paper, which aims to enhance early diagnosis and intervention processes. While officials argue that the reforms will ultimately lessen reliance on EHCPs by making inclusive support more accessible, the immediate rise in applications is intensifying financial pressures on councils. The costs associated with EHCPs are covered by local authority high-needs budgets, and councils have accumulated persistent deficits. Despite a government pledge to clear 90 percent of existing SEND deficits, it is anticipated that this debt will re-accumulate within the next year, underscoring ongoing financial challenges.

Outlook for Local Authorities

The transitional period is projected to remain fiscally demanding for local councils for several years, even as the government proceeds with restructuring support for children with special educational needs. The effectiveness of the new model in moderating EHCP demand will be a crucial factor to observe, alongside the ongoing financial viability of local authority budgets. The current surge reflects both a genuine need and a strategic response by families to policy changes.