Pro-Russian Party Leads Bulgarian Election Exit Polls

Sofia — Progressive Bulgaria, the party linked to former President Rumen Radev, led Bulgaria’s parliamentary election held on Sunday, June 9, 2024, according to exit polls. The projected first-place finish does not indicate an outright majority, but it places a pro-Russian political force in the strongest position to shape talks on forming a government. The result comes as Bulgaria continues to cycle through elections without producing durable governing arrangements.

The June 9 vote was Bulgaria’s eighth parliamentary election in five years, underscoring prolonged political instability. Progressive Bulgaria ran on an anti-corruption message that connected with voters after a crisis that began in 2021, when anti-graft protests helped trigger a period of repeated elections and fragile coalitions. Exit polls suggested voters were moving away from established conservative and liberal groupings that have dominated recent government formation efforts.

In the same exit-poll snapshots, Boyko Borissov’s GERB party was placed at about 16%, while the PP-DB coalition was around 14%. Those figures, alongside Progressive Bulgaria’s lead, point to a fragmented parliament in which coalition-building is likely to be complex. With no majority indicated, negotiations and compromises would be required to assemble a governing bloc, and the balance of power could hinge on smaller parties and shifting alliances.

Radev, who served as president for nine years, has argued for renewed ties with Russia and has opposed military aid to Ukraine. That position differs from Bulgaria’s current pro-European and pro-Ukrainian foreign policy orientation. If his party’s lead translates into a central role in government formation, it could complicate Bulgaria’s alignment with European Union decisions related to the war in Ukraine, depending on how coalition talks unfold and what policy commitments are agreed.

Voter participation remained a key uncertainty. Turnout was 39% in the previous 2024 election, reflecting broad public distrust in the political system, and analysts had expected higher participation this time. The final turnout figure, and whether it signals renewed engagement or continued fatigue, will be closely watched as parties interpret the mandate behind the exit-poll results.