NOAA Confirms El Niño, With Risk of a ‘Super’ Event

The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration confirmed the emergence of El Niño on Thursday, June 8, 2023, citing above-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. Officials said the event is expected to strengthen and could rank among the largest El Niño episodes in records going back to 1950.

NOAA put the probability at 63% that the developing El Niño will be among the strongest since 1950 by late fall or early winter. Scientists said a stronger event can amplify extremes in heat, rainfall, and drought, depending on the region.

El Niño is part of a recurring cycle in the Pacific that typically develops during the Northern Hemisphere spring and returns every three to seven years. The pattern reflects linked changes in the ocean and atmosphere that can reverberate through weather systems worldwide.

How El Niño can reshape weather patterns

Officials said El Niño can alter jet streams and shift precipitation patterns, increasing the risk of heavy rain in some areas while raising drought and heat risks in others. The impacts vary by location and by the strength of the event.

Regions that can see increased rainfall include the southern U.S., parts of the Middle East, and south-central Asia, officials said. At the same time, El Niño is often associated with drier and hotter conditions in Australia, southern and central Africa, India, and parts of South America, including areas of the Amazon rainforest.

The article also noted that strong El Niño episodes have been tied to severe drought in places such as Ethiopia, water shortages in Puerto Rico, and an intensified hurricane season in the central North Pacific.

What scientists mean by a ‘super’ El Niño

A “super” El Niño is generally used to describe an unusually strong event, defined in this article as sea surface temperature anomalies of 2°C or more. The stronger the warming in the Pacific, the higher the odds that downstream weather impacts become more pronounced.

Scientists said a strong El Niño could push global temperatures toward record highs, with 2027 cited as a potential record-setting year. Forecasts will be updated as Pacific sea surface temperatures and atmospheric conditions evolve through the year.