Ryanair warns European fares may rise 20% in 2027

Ryanair Chief Executive Michael O’Leary warned on Oct. 20 that European air fares may rise as much as 20% in 2027, speaking at a Brussels news conference reported by The Guardian.

The pressure reflects a fuel shock facing carriers: airline group IATA previously forecast jet fuel would average $152 a barrel in 2026, 70% above 2025’s $90 average.

O’Leary said higher fuel costs linked to the Middle East conflict would leave airlines with thinner protection once existing hedge contracts expire. Fuel hedging is the use of contracts to lock in prices and reduce exposure to market swings.

“You’re going to see air fares rise next year in Europe, I think by 10, 15, maybe 20%. You’re going to see ⁠the biggest increase in air fares, I would say, in history in Europe for the next 12 ​months,” O’Leary said, according to The Guardian.

Ryanair and other European carriers had covered much of their 2026 fuel needs, O’Leary said. He said Ryanair was 80% hedged at $67 a barrel when the Iran conflict began in late February.

That protection falls sharply from April 2027, according to O’Leary. “We’re 85% unhedged next year, and most of the other European airlines are in a similar position,” he said.

Ryanair’s 2027 fuel hedges cover 15% of its fuel costs at $85 a barrel, O’Leary said. Spot prices are around twice that level, according to the report.

The warning adds to a downbeat period for European aviation, where fuel is a major operating cost and fare increases depend on how much consumers will tolerate. O’Leary said the squeeze could contribute to airline failures and acquisitions, a prediction that remains his view rather than a confirmed industry outcome.

EasyJet reported in July that its annual fuel costs had risen by £105 million. It said it had hedged 62% of fuel needs for the first half of 2027 and 37% for the second half, and in October announced a 700,000-seat reduction to its winter schedule to save fuel.

O’Leary also said in Brussels that Ryanair would remove 20 routes and more than 1 million seats from Belgium in its winter schedule. He attributed the cuts to the Belgian federal government’s decision to raise its aviation tax to €7 from €2 in January.

In January 2027, Belgium’s aviation tax is due to rise to €7 from €2, according to O’Leary. Ryanair has linked that increase to its plan to cut 20 Belgium routes and more than 1 million winter seats.

From April 2027, O’Leary said most European carriers, including Ryanair, lack substantial hedging against sustained high oil prices. Ryanair’s 2027 fuel cover stands at 15% at $85 a barrel, according to his comments.

Source: news article, The Guardian, Oct. 20, 2026