Loop Capital cuts Apple target to $330 on iPhone forecast

Loop Capital cut its Apple price target to $330 from $370 and downgraded the stock to Hold from Buy, AppleInsider reported on Oct. 20, citing analyst Ananda Baruah.

The Oct. 20 trade-press report said Loop now expects 79 million iPhone shipments in the December quarter, below Wall Street's 85 million estimate, putting supply-chain readings at odds with Apple's changed launch calendar.

Shipment cut drives call

Loop's revised view turns on shipments the firm no longer expects Apple to recoup. AppleInsider, summarising the call, said Loop believes Apple will not replace 13 million iPhones removed from second-half 2026 plans.

The firm first linked lower production plans to shortages of memory and processors. AppleInsider said subsequent supply-chain checks changed Loop's view that many of the missing units would be recovered in 2027.

Loop estimates Apple cut planned iPhone shipments for the September and December quarters by about 10%. AppleInsider said the basis for that percentage was not clear in the material it reviewed.

The broker also lowered its average iPhone selling price forecast, a measure of revenue per handset, to $1,123 from $1,239 for the rest of 2026. For 2027, Loop raised its annual iPhone shipment estimate to 260 million but cut the expected selling price to $1,096 from $1,235.

That mix change reduces Loop's projected 2027 iPhone revenue to $285 billion from $315 billion, even with more units. The firm cut its 2027 earnings-per-share estimate to $9.76 from $10.11 and lowered its normalised earnings estimate to $11 a share from $12.

Loop applied a price-to-earnings multiple of 30, a valuation ratio comparing a share price with expected profit, to reach the new $330 target. The firm also warned that higher memory costs could pressure profit, according to AppleInsider.

Split launch muddies signal

The forecast is complicated by Apple's altered 2026 iPhone schedule. AppleInsider said the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max arrived in September, while the foldable iPhone Duo is scheduled to reach customers on Oct. 23.

Apple supplier Pegatron previously supported reports of a revised launch schedule that moves part of the fall lineup into the following year.

That matters because a smaller fall lineup can lower shipments without proving that demand weakened. AppleInsider said comparisons with 2025 are difficult because the standard iPhone 17 launched alongside Pro models in September that year.

JP Morgan analysts made a similar argument in an Oct. 12 assessment, according to AppleInsider. They tied lower December-quarter expectations to the split launch and were sceptical that component cuts necessarily showed weaker end demand.

Counterpoint Research also attributed much of Apple's third-quarter shipment decline to the absent standard iPhone 18 in an Oct. 12 report cited by AppleInsider. Counterpoint said Apple still had 22% of global smartphone shipments in the quarter, its highest third-quarter share on record, while the broader smartphone market fell 20% year on year.

Other indicators were stronger for premium models. Counterpoint projected iPhone 18 Pro panel shipments through October would be 2% above the comparable 2025 period, and 7% higher when the iPhone Duo was included, according to AppleInsider.

In China, Counterpoint said iPhone 18 Pro sales increased 23.5% year on year in the first three weeks. The research firm suggested some buyers may have selected a Pro model rather than wait for the standard iPhone 18, AppleInsider reported.

There are also weaker readings. Jefferies analyst Edison Lee warned Monday that Pro demand was softening, pointing to shorter delivery times than in 2025, lower resale prices and component-order cuts, according to AppleInsider.

Jefferies found delivery waits for both Pro models in China had fallen to zero. AppleInsider said that was not unusual in mid-October, while the comparable 2025 period had six-day waits for the iPhone 17 Pro and 25-day waits for the Pro Max.

The evidence remains incomplete. Shorter waits may show softer demand or adequate inventory, and component orders do not always map directly to finished iPhones. The unresolved issue is how many of Loop's 13 million missing units represent lost sales rather than purchases pushed into 2027 by Apple's release schedule.

Upcoming iPhone checks

Oct. 23: The iPhone Duo is scheduled to reach customers, according to AppleInsider. Its availability gives analysts another data point for whether Apple's premium and foldable models can support December-quarter shipments despite the missing standard iPhone 18.

Early 2027: The standard iPhone 18 is expected to arrive, according to AppleInsider. That launch is the check on whether shipments excluded from the 2026 fall lineup were delayed into the next cycle or lost outright.

Source: trade-press article, AppleInsider, Oct. 20, 2026