Lula, Bolsonaro Tied in Brazil Poll

A recent Datafolha poll, released Saturday, May 16, indicates a statistical tie between incumbent Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and challenger Flavio Bolsonaro ahead of Brazil's October presidential election. Both candidates garnered 45 percent support among polled voters in a hypothetical run-off scenario. This poll, conducted on May 12 and 13, surveyed 2,004 individuals, with 9 percent indicating they would cast null ballots and 1 percent undecided.

The survey results precede a controversy involving Flavio Bolsonaro. On May 13, The Intercept Brasil reported on leaked messages between Bolsonaro and a banker, Daniel Vorcaro, who was later arrested for an alleged fraud scheme. The messages reportedly show Bolsonaro seeking 134 million Brazilian reals ($24 million) from Vorcaro to finance a film about his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro. Flavio Bolsonaro has acknowledged seeking private sponsorship for the film but denies any connection to Vorcaro's alleged fraud.

Lula, 80, is seeking a fourth non-consecutive term, having previously served from 2003 to 2011. Flavio Bolsonaro, a senator, aims to continue his father's political legacy and has pledged to seek his father's release from a 27-year prison sentence for attempting to subvert the 2022 election results. The recent poll highlights a narrowing gap, as Lula held a significant lead in late 2025.