Aquatic Tiger: How long-range submarine drones could play a role in a Taiwan conflict

A recent wargame simulation, conducted in November 2025, explored the potential deployment of long-range autonomous underwater vehicles (LRAUVs) in a hypothetical conflict scenario involving Taiwan. The exercise, dubbed "Aquatic Tiger" by the Atlantic Council's Indo-Pacific Security Initiative (IPSI), aimed to assess the utility of these uncrewed systems in deterring or responding to Chinese military actions.

The simulation indicated that LRAUVs could contribute to various defense strategies, including pre-conflict surveillance, mine countermeasures, and coordinated swarm attacks within critical maritime chokepoints. However, the study also highlighted significant limitations, particularly their vulnerability in the shallow and confined waters characteristic of the Taiwan Strait.

Strategic Contributions and Limitations

These AI-controlled submersible platforms, which are currently under development, were modeled with capabilities spanning intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR), seabed mapping, mine countermeasures (MCM), electronic warfare (EW), and the delivery of kinetic effects. Their primary advantages include reducing human risk, lower manufacturing costs, expendability, and enhanced stealth compared to traditional crewed submarines.

Despite these benefits, the wargame identified several operational drawbacks. LRAUVs demonstrated limitations in speed, endurance, overall mission versatility, payload capacity, and the ability to maintain real-time situational awareness. These factors suggest that while valuable, LRAUVs are not a standalone solution for complex naval operations.

Deployment and Integration Challenges

The wargame's findings suggest that for LRAUVs to be effective, they would require substantial deployment numbers, meticulous advance planning, and seamless integration into broader U.S. and allied military operations. The study concluded that these systems would likely serve as supplementary assets rather than decisive game-changers in a major conflict.

Further analysis, technical experimentation, and live exercises are deemed necessary to fully understand optimal deployment strategies, assess their cost-effectiveness, and explore synergistic operations with other military platforms. Understanding potential Chinese countermeasures against these systems is also a critical area for future research.

Broader Context of Taiwan Defense

The exploration of LRAUVs forms part of a wider strategic effort by Taiwan and its allies to enhance defensive capabilities against potential aggression. This includes investments in asymmetric warfare tools, which aim to leverage technological advantages and cost-effective solutions to counter a larger adversary. The Taiwan Strait, a critical waterway, presents unique challenges for naval operations due to its geographical characteristics.

Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Indo-Pacific region underscore the importance of such defense simulations. The development and integration of advanced uncrewed systems like LRAUVs reflect a global trend towards leveraging automation and artificial intelligence in modern military strategies, aiming to enhance operational effectiveness while mitigating risks to personnel.

Implications

Country Impact: Taiwan's defense strategy could integrate LRAUVs as part of a multi-layered approach, potentially enhancing surveillance and mine countermeasures. However, their effectiveness in the specific geography of the Taiwan Strait remains a key challenge.

Industry Impact: The defense industry faces continued demand for advanced autonomous underwater vehicles, focusing on improving speed, endurance, and payload capacity. Research and development will likely concentrate on overcoming current technological limitations.

Market Impact: Defense contractors specializing in uncrewed systems and AI-driven military technology may see increased investment and procurement interest. The market for maritime surveillance and electronic warfare solutions could also expand.