Yemen offensive puts Bab el-Mandeb route at risk for ships

Yemen's Saudi-backed government began a Yemen offensive Sunday to retake Houthi-held territory, after rebels claimed 50 Saudi-led strikes.

President Rashad al-Alimi announced the operation in a televised address, saying forces had been ordered to carry out approved military plans. The Houthis said they fired ballistic missiles and drones at Saudi Aramco facilities in Riyadh and Khurais; Saudi Arabia did not immediately confirm the claim.

Al-Alimi orders counteroffensive

Al-Alimi framed the campaign as an attempt to restore state authority across territory now held by the Houthis. He said efforts to lower the temperature of the conflict had been exhausted, and accused the group of answering de-escalation moves with mobilization.

The announcement follows preparations described by regional and Western officials, who said Saudi Arabia and allied Yemeni forces were planning an assault with Saudi aircraft and Yemeni ground units. People described as familiar with the preparations said the US was providing intelligence support to Riyadh, while some regional and European countries were supplying mainly defensive assistance to the kingdom.

Saudi Arabia entered Yemen's civil war in 2015 at the head of an Arab coalition supporting the internationally recognized government. The Houthis had earlier pushed that government out of Sanaa, and a truce agreed in 2022 had largely held until this year's renewed missile and drone attacks.

Bab el-Mandeb pressure builds

The military balance has shifted in recent weeks, according to the account from officials and military sources. The Houthis seized the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in a rapid coastal advance, giving them control over a southern Red Sea exit used by ships moving between Asia and the Mediterranean.

The waterway has drawn greater attention this year as the Iran conflict disrupted other routes, including the Strait of Hormuz, according to the officials' account. Houthi control of the northwest, where much of Yemen's population lives, had already given the group a broad territorial base before the coastal gains.

Military sources said the Houthis also advanced in the past 48 hours on hilltops near Taiz, moving toward the last road linking the city with Aden, where the Saudi-backed government is based. If the group controls the Taiz-Aden road, Taiz would face an effective siege, with hundreds of thousands of civilians and thousands of government forces inside Yemen's third-largest city.

Mohammed Al-Qadhi, a Yemeni journalist from Taiz now working as a political analyst, said the hill positions would strengthen Houthi defenses above the coastal plain. “This will help them protect their back in case of any operation against the coastline, and make recapturing those areas much more difficult,” he said.

Taiz civilians face squeeze

The humanitarian pressure is already rising, according to the World Food Programme. The agency said last week that three in four families in parts of Yemen were going hungry after the surge in fighting displaced tens of thousands of people and disrupted supplies to millions.

The next phase turns on whether government forces can break Houthi momentum before the Taiz-Aden road is cut. If the offensive advances, Saudi Aramco and other energy infrastructure would remain exposed to retaliatory claims and attacks, but Red Sea shipping firms could see a clearer path to reopening routes near Bab el-Mandeb.

If the Houthis hold the strait and tighten pressure on Taiz, the mechanism runs the other way: higher insurance and routing costs for shipping, more pressure on Saudi oil facilities, and a wider drag on trade between Asia and the Mediterranean. The immediate tests are Saudi confirmation of any damage, the durability of US and allied support, and control of the mountain approaches west of Taiz.