Netanyahu bloc faces 8-seat gap in Israel coalition race

Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud appeared to lead Israel’s Oct. 27 election with about 26 Knesset seats, but his right-wing and religious bloc was projected at 53 seats, The Jerusalem Post/The Media Line reported Oct. 30.

That would leave the bloc 8 seats below the 61-seat Knesset majority usually needed to form a government, even though Likud would be the largest party in the 120-member parliament, according to the article.

The result underscores a central feature of Israel’s system: winning the most votes does not by itself confer power. The prime minister is not directly elected by the public and must instead command enough parliamentary support to take office and survive.

Israelis vote for national party lists, not individual district candidates. Seats are allocated broadly according to each list’s share of valid ballots, provided the list clears the 3.25% electoral threshold, the article said.

In the 2026 election, 38 candidate lists were approved and one withdrew before polling day, according to the article. Preliminary results indicated that 11 lists would enter the Knesset.

That fragmentation gives smaller parties bargaining power. A party with 6 seats can help determine whether a prospective prime minister reaches a majority, and can seek policy commitments or ministries in return for joining a coalition.

The figures remained provisional. Atlas360 reported Oct. 29 that Likud had been reported as the largest party with 27 seats, while Israel’s Central Elections Committee had not yet published final official results.

The coalition math also shows why Netanyahu’s rivals may not find an easy route to government. The article said a four-party opposition bloc was projected at 48 seats, while two Arab-led lists were expected to win a combined 19 seats.

Together, those parties would have 67 seats on paper, above the majority threshold. In practice, the article said, some opposition leaders have firmly rejected forming a government with Arab parties or relying on their parliamentary support.

Israel’s recent history shows how coalition bargaining can override first-place finishes. In 2021, Likud won 30 seats, while Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid won 17 seats and Naftali Bennett’s Yamina won 7 seats, according to the article.

Bennett nevertheless became prime minister after reaching a coalition agreement with Lapid and other parties. The eight-party government included right-wing, centrist, left-wing and Islamist Arab representation, and Netanyahu moved into opposition despite Likud’s first-place result.

That government lasted about one year before collapsing under internal disagreements. Netanyahu returned to power after another election in November 2022, the article said.

The immediate question after the Oct. 27 vote is therefore not only which party finished first, but whether any leader can assemble a coalition that reaches or survives near the 61-seat threshold once final results are published.

Source: trade-press article, The Jerusalem Post/The Media Line, Oct. 30, 2026