Brent heads for fourth monthly gain as Middle East risk persists

Brent Oil Futures rose 2.06% to $113.08 a barrel on October 30 in Investing UK market data captured at 08:30 UTC, as the contract headed for a fourth straight monthly gain.

WTI Crude Oil Futures rose 1.88% to $103.92 a barrel, while OilPrice author Irina Slav wrote in an Investing UK market analysis published October 30 that Reuters put October gains at 11% for Brent and 14% for WTI. The move matters because supply-risk pricing was building before the Tuesday, November 3, US midterm elections and possible US action against Iran, according to the analysis.

Reuters figures cited by the analysis showed Brent had gained more than $40 a barrel since end-June, while WTI had risen by about $34 a barrel over the same period.

The analysis linked the rally to continued concern over escalation in the Middle East, including reports of attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and a fresh report of Houthi attacks on Saudi oil facilities. The Strait of Hormuz is a central passage for Gulf energy exports, making threats to shipping and infrastructure relevant to global crude pricing.

MST Marquee’s head of energy research, Saul Kavonic, said in comments quoted by Reuters: “Continued kinetic action around the Strait of Hormuz amidst doubts of a viable diplomatic pathway are keeping oil prices elevated in expectation of an escalation of the conflict in coming weeks.”

The analysis said President Trump had repeatedly suggested the US could resume strikes against Iran after the November 3 elections. It also cited media reports saying the US and Israel were coordinating on those strikes, a reported development the analysis said had added to expectations of renewed hostilities.

The supply picture is not one-sided. The analysis said security concerns had offset a series of reports about recovering oil flows from the Persian Gulf, suggesting the market is weighing disruption risk against evidence that exports have so far continued.

“For now, crude exports from the region have proved relatively resilient, helped by alternative routes and logistical adjustments,” Saxo Bank’s head of commodity strategy, Ole Hansen, said last week, according to the analysis. “However, the market is increasingly concerned that further attacks could damage production, processing or export infrastructure, creating disruptions that cannot easily be resolved by rerouting shipments.”

Several points remain unclear from the supplied analysis, including the scale of reported tanker incidents, the condition of any targeted infrastructure and whether US action against Iran will follow the election. Atlas360 reported on October 29 that Vance had tested an Iran backchannel to head off strikes, underscoring the parallel diplomatic track.

The next dated marker for oil traders is the Tuesday, November 3, US midterm election, after which the analysis said Trump had suggested the US could resume strikes against Iran.

Source: market analysis, Investing UK and OilPrice, October 30, 2026