Indian refiners lift crude imports to record 5.6m bpd

Indian refiners lifted crude imports to a record of about 5.6 million barrels a day in October, according to Kpler data cited by Business Standard on Nov. 1.

The mix matters because India imports nearly 90% of its crude needs. West Asian cargoes supplied about 2.3 million barrels a day in October, while Russian flows were around 2 million barrels a day, Kpler said.

Kpler lead analyst Nikhil Dubey said higher ship-to-ship transfers, where cargoes are moved between vessels at sea, helped more crude pass through the Strait of Hormuz and supported a recovery in Gulf supplies during September and October.

That recovery gave Indian refiners more room to choose between Gulf and Russian grades on price and availability. Gulf suppliers are offering competitive delivered prices as they seek to recover market share in India, Dubey said.

“Russian flows, which have held strong at these levels, could soften in November-December as attacks in the Black Sea push freight rates higher, making Russian barrels less attractive on a landed cost basis,” Dubey said.

The data underline how India’s refineries continue to balance supply security against delivered cost. Russia became a major supplier after its February 2022 invasion of Ukraine disrupted global oil trade and prompted Western sanctions, an EU ban on seaborne Russian crude and a G7 price cap.

Before the war, Russian crude was a negligible part of India’s purchases, according to the Business Standard report. At the peak, it reached as much as 40% to 50% of India’s crude basket, helped by discounts that put Russian Urals at times around $30 a barrel below Brent in late 2022 and early 2023.

Those discounts have almost disappeared, the report said. Still, disruptions affecting Middle Eastern supplies have kept Indian refiners buying Russian barrels, even as Gulf volumes recovered through September and October.

Dubey said an Oct. 16 waiver under the Graham Act could ease concerns for some Indian buyers over Russian oil purchases. The report did not give further details on the scope of the waiver.

The main uncertainty is logistics. Dubey said Russian shipments could moderate in November and December if Black Sea attacks lift freight rates, while any renewed disruption to Hormuz flows could push refiners back toward Russian crude even at higher transport costs.

In November and December, Kpler’s projected moderation in Russian shipments will be tested by whether Black Sea freight rates make those barrels less competitive on a landed-cost basis.

In November and December, Gulf suppliers’ delivered prices will show whether they can regain market share after West Asian supplies reached about 2.3 million barrels a day in October.

Any renewed disruption to flows through the Strait of Hormuz would test Dubey’s view that Indian refiners could return to Russian crude even at higher freight costs.

Source: syndicated feed published by Business Standard, Nov. 1, 2026