Senate contests put Trump’s remaining agenda on the line

President Donald Trump campaigns in Iowa and Kansas on Sunday as Senate contests test Republican control two days before the midterms.

Republicans are defending slim advantages in both congressional chambers, with 35 Senate contests and elections for the entire 435-member House scheduled for Tuesday. A Democratic majority in either chamber would give the opposition power to obstruct legislation and investigate the administration.

The itinerary takes Trump into agricultural states where Republican strength has not insulated the party from competitive races. Iowa backed him by a double-digit margin in 2024, while Kansas has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932.

Farm Belt contests test Republican strength

Polling described in the supplied election coverage puts Democrats level with Republicans or ahead in several Iowa contests, although individual surveys and margins are not identified. Kansas also has a competitive Senate contest, placing another traditionally Republican seat in contention.

Senator Tim Scott, the South Carolina Republican leading his party's Senate campaign committee, characterized the election as a judgment on Trump's program during a Sunday interview. Scott nevertheless forecast that Republicans would retain their Senate majority, an assessment rather than an election result.

Early participation has already exceeded the comparable 2022 total: the University of Florida's Election Lab reported that more than 52 million people had cast ballots ahead of Tuesday. That compares with nearly 46 million before Election Day in the previous midterm cycle; the lab described the current figure as a midterm record.

Alaska certification becomes a legal battleground

In Alaska, Republican Senator Dan S. Sullivan faces Democrat Mary Peltola in another competitive contest. A separate candidacy by Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. has become the subject of a Justice Department criminal inquiry and a dispute over whether the eventual result should be certified.

The department has sought a federal court order preventing certification if the incumbent suffers a narrow defeat. Sullivan said Sunday that he would accept the outcome, but did not commit to opposing attempts to withhold certification following a loss.

The senator accused the similarly named challenger of attempting to mislead voters. Peltola and the campaign committee denied involvement in his candidacy, while Sullivan Jr. denied coordination with Peltola's campaign; those denials leave the alleged arrangement contested, not established.

Republican Governor Mike Dunleavy has suggested he might withhold certification of a Peltola victory. Representative James Comer, the Kentucky Republican who chairs the House Oversight Committee, separately announced a committee inquiry into Peltola's alleged role.

California rulings constrain ballot challenge

In California, a federal judge rejected the Justice Department's attempt to exclude mailed ballots associated with more than 20,000 registered voters whom the department alleges are probably noncitizens. An appellate court has rejected its arguments twice; the allegation does not establish those voters' citizenship status.

The administration has indicated that it is likely to seek Supreme Court intervention. Its next legal step would determine whether the dispute reaches another court before the election process concludes.

If Democrats capture either chamber, congressional oversight and resistance to legislation would become central constraints on Trump's remaining term. If Republicans retain both, the opposition would lack those majority powers, although the Alaska dispute shows that counting ballots and certifying results may remain separate stages of the contest.