Global Energy Shortages Push US Gas Prices to $6.53 a Gallon

US diesel prices reached a record $6.53 per gallon in late September, representing a significant increase from the $3.75 per gallon recorded prior to the current geopolitical conflicts. This inflationary pressure is primarily attributed to a global diesel shortfall estimated at 1.7 to 1.8 million barrels per day, impacting domestic energy costs ahead of the upcoming midterm elections.

Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries have contributed approximately one-third of this global supply deficit. Russian net diesel exports declined by 80% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2026, falling from 1.05 million barrels per day to 200,000 barrels per day, prompting a temporary Russian export ban.

However, the broader energy crisis is exacerbated by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Disruptions to transit through the Strait of Hormuz and damage to regional refining capacity have created sustained upward pressure on global oil prices. Analysts indicate that short-term mitigation of these fuel costs remains unlikely due to the time required for infrastructure repairs and the persistence of regional hostilities.