US-Turkey Maintain Operational Alignment

Despite public disagreements, the United States and Turkey maintain significant operational alignment across numerous regional and global issues, according to an analysis of their strategic and diplomatic approaches. This alignment persists even amid mutual perceptions of unreliability and frequent public criticism between Washington and Ankara. The two NATO allies demonstrate a high degree of collaboration driven by compatible practical interests, rather than rhetoric.

The analysis, which assigned numerical values to alignment levels on 16 specific issues, indicates full alignment (+1) on five key areas: Ukraine/Black Sea, Caucasus, Central Asia, Africa, Syria, and Iraq. Both nations share goals such as Ukraine's survival, limiting Russian and Chinese influence in Central Asia and Africa, and stable, unified states in Syria and Iraq.

Partial alignment (+0.5) was observed in four areas, including Gaza, energy diversification, US global leadership, and trade/defense trade. Friction (-0.5) was noted in three areas: Eastern Mediterranean, Iran, and sanctions.

Counteralignment (-1) was identified regarding Israel, where Turkey seeks to constrain Israel while the US fully supports it.

This pattern suggests that while public discourse often highlights differences, the underlying state-to-state relationship is characterized by a complex interdependence. Both countries, a retrenching leading power and a rising middle power, are disinclined to establish imperial arrangements, fostering a generally cooperative approach on many international matters.