Russia Intensifies Covert Efforts in Armenia

Russia has intensified covert efforts to influence Armenia's upcoming June 7 election, aiming to prevent Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's re-election and his country's pivot towards the West. Western intelligence and government officials report that Moscow's actions include disinformation campaigns favoring pro-Russian candidates and a scheme to transport tens of thousands of Russian-Armenians to sway the vote.

Pashinyan, who leads in polls, has strengthened ties with the United States and Europe, including hosting NATO's chief and signing a minerals deal with the U.S. This shift has prompted Russian President Vladimir Putin to displeasure, leading to warnings about cheap natural gas supplies and restrictions on Armenian imports such as fruit, vegetables, flowers, and brandy.

Moscow's preferred candidate is Samvel Karapetyan, an Armenian-Russian billionaire currently on trial for allegedly calling for the overthrow of the government. The Kremlin's Directorate for Strategic Cooperation and Partnership, established in October, is reportedly overseeing these influence operations. While the feasibility of transporting 100,000 voters at an estimated cost of $50 million is debated within intelligence communities, the concept is taken seriously due to frequent travel between the two nations.