Texas Senate Race Nears Decision

On Tuesday, May 27, 2026, Texas voters will select their Republican nominee for the U.S. Senate, a contest that could significantly influence the balance of power in the chamber. Incumbent Senator John Cornyn faces Attorney General Ken Paxton in a runoff election. This race is projected to be one of the most expensive in U.S. history.

Paxton, endorsed by former President Donald Trump, has generally led Cornyn in public opinion polls. An internal memo from the Senate Republicans' campaign arm last year indicated that a Paxton nomination could create an opportunity for Democrats to win in Texas, potentially diverting substantial Republican campaign funds from other competitive states. Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate, with Democrats needing to gain four seats in the November election to secure control.

Cornyn's campaign has focused on Paxton's legal and ethical challenges, including an impeachment by the Texas House and felony fraud indictments. Paxton has denied all allegations and called for a positive campaign focus. The winner of the Republican runoff will face Democratic state Representative James Talarico, whose campaign has attracted independent and moderate voters. Talarico's initial lead in polls has diminished, with recent surveys indicating a close general election regardless of the Republican nominee.