Changing Crime Counting Rules Complicate Reliability of Reported Drop in UK Shoplifting Data

UK retail-crime indicators are pointing in different directions after changes to how offences are recorded, complicating how the public and markets read the latest shoplifting trend.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer said on April 27, 2026, that the number of people charged with shoplifting offences in England and Wales increased by 17%. He attributed the rise to government action aimed at tackling retail crime, which has become a politically and socially prominent issue across the country.

Government focus on enforcement and evidence-sharing

Starmer also highlighted technology as part of the approach, describing faster evidence-sharing as a deterrent. He pointed to the rapid transfer of CCTV footage to police, presenting quicker access to video as a practical tool to support enforcement and reduce theft.

The government has presented these steps as part of a broader effort to strengthen the response to retail crime. Alongside that, it has moved to remove a rule that had limited full investigations into thefts involving goods valued under £200.

ONS cautions on 2025 comparisons after counting change

Official figures for 2025 from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) add caveats to any simple reading of the trend. The ONS data shows a 1% decline in police-recorded shoplifting incidents across England and Wales in 2025.

At the same time, the ONS said a change in counting rules affects year-on-year comparisons. Under the updated approach, incidents involving violence or threats are now recorded as robbery of business property rather than shoplifting, making direct comparisons less straightforward.

To address the reclassification, the ONS also publishes a combined measure. When shoplifting is added to robbery of business property, the total for 2025 increases by 1%, according to the same official sources.

Industry support and retailer-reported figures

Retail trade unions and industry groups have backed the policy shift on investigations. Usdaw and the Association of Convenience Stores said they support the renewed focus and the introduction of a crime and policing bill intended to reclassify theft and strengthen protections for retail workers.

Some retailers have also reported improvements in their own data. The Co-op said crime levels at its locations fell by over 20% in 2025.

Uncertainty over what is driving the headline movements

The relationship between charging outcomes, police-recorded incidents, and the revised counting rules leaves uncertainty over whether underlying offending is falling, or whether measurement and enforcement changes are driving the headline shifts.

For policymakers and markets, that uncertainty matters because retail crime can affect operating costs, staffing, and investment decisions, while also shaping expectations of policing and justice outcomes. Internationally, the UK’s experience highlights how changes in crime classification and enforcement priorities can complicate cross-country comparisons used by investors and global retailers assessing risk and store security strategies.