IMF puts Turkey 2026 inflation at 31.2%

The IMF forecast Turkey’s year-end inflation at 31.2% in its October 2026 outlook, keeping the lira and rate path in focus.

The fund lowered its 2026 growth projection for Turkey to 2.7% from 2.9%, data showed. For 2027, it projected growth of 3.6% and year-end inflation of 26.5%, implying slower disinflation than a clean return to single digits.

Turkey forecasts pressure the lira

The figures matter for foreign-exchange markets because Turkey’s currency remains sensitive to the expected real return on lira assets. If investors read the 31.2% year-end inflation forecast as a constraint on rate cuts, lira assets may draw support from tighter policy expectations; if inflation proves stickier than projected, pressure could shift back to the currency and sovereign risk pricing.

For the domestic economy, the growth downgrade points to the trade-off facing policymakers. A 2.7% expansion forecast for 2026, down 0.2 percentage point from the fund’s prior view, suggests weaker demand as inflation control remains the policy priority.

The open question is whether disinflation can continue while growth recovers to the IMF’s 3.6% projection in 2027. By December 31, 2026, markets will be testing whether Turkey is tracking closer to the fund’s 31.2% inflation path or forcing a repricing of lira rates.