England vs Argentina: Who Reaches the Final?

Trying to mark Messi with one player is rarely enough. Following him everywhere can be even more damaging because it opens the spaces he has vacated for Julián Álvarez, Alexis Mac Allister and Argentina’s advancing midfielders.

England’s solution should be positional rather than personal. Declan Rice must protect the area in front of the centre-backs, while Jude Bellingham and England’s second central midfielder close passing routes into Messi from either side. The objective is not to prevent Messi touching the ball. It is to make sure those touches happen farther from goal, with his back turned and England’s defensive structure still intact.

Thomas Tuchel has confirmed Rice is available to start after recovering from illness. That is England’s most important piece of team news because no other midfielder combines his recovery speed, defensive range and ability to carry the ball through pressure. Jarell Quansah is suspended and Jordan Henderson remains injured, but the rest of the squad is available.

ENGLAND’S ROUTE TO GOAL

England’s attack is at its best when Bellingham moves beyond Harry Kane rather than operating permanently alongside him.

Kane will naturally drop toward midfield to receive possession. If Argentina’s centre-backs follow, Bellingham can attack the space behind them. If they stay deep, Kane can turn and connect with Bukayo Saka or England’s left winger.

That relationship has already defined England’s tournament. Kane and Bellingham have scored six goals each, equalling England’s individual record for goals at a major international competition. Bellingham’s two goals against Norway carried England into the semifinal, while Kane’s movement continues to create opportunities even when he is not finishing them himself.

England should also target the space outside Argentina’s centre-backs. Saka can begin wide before driving inside onto his stronger left foot, forcing Argentina’s left-back to choose between closing him down and protecting the channel. An overlapping right-back would then stretch the defensive line and create crossing positions for Kane and Bellingham.

The numbers from England’s 2-1 quarterfinal victory over Norway support that approach. England completed 15 defensive-line breaks, compared with Norway’s three, and produced 13 receptions behind the opposition defence. They also completed 14 switches of play, showing an ability to move opponents across the pitch before attacking the weak side.

ARGENTINA’S CENTRAL OVERLOAD

Argentina will try to make the pitch feel smaller.

Lionel Scaloni’s team may be listed in a 4-3-3 or 4-4-2, but the possession structure is more fluid. Messi drifts inward from the right, Mac Allister advances from midfield and Álvarez moves across the front line. That can give Argentina four players inside the central corridor against England’s three midfielders.

Their objective will be to attract Rice forward, play around him and release a runner into the space in front of England’s centre-backs. Messi remains the obvious creator, but Argentina’s attack has not depended entirely on one player. Seven other players have scored at the tournament, while eight members of the squad have supplied assists.

Argentina’s 3-1 quarterfinal win over Switzerland demonstrated both their strengths and vulnerabilities. Scaloni’s side attempted 22 shots, made 111 receptions between the opposition’s midfield and defensive lines and recorded 149 offers to run behind. However, they required extra time to finish the contest after Switzerland equalised, with their final two goals arriving after the Swiss had been reduced to 10 players.

That suggests England should not become passive. Argentina are comfortable when opponents retreat and allow Messi to select his pass. They are less secure when possession is lost with their midfield ahead of the ball.

THE BELLINGHAM PROBLEM

Bellingham may be the player Argentina find hardest to control.

He does not remain in a fixed No. 10 position. He can drop beside Rice during the buildup, attack the penalty area as a second striker or move toward the left to create an overload. Assigning a defensive midfielder to follow him could leave space for Kane; handing him to a centre-back could distort Argentina’s back line.

His physical advantage may become even more important late in the match. Argentina played 120 minutes against Switzerland, while England also needed a stoppage-time winner against Norway but completed their quarterfinal within regulation time. The difference is not large enough to decide the game by itself, yet it could matter if the semifinal reaches extra time.

England should therefore resist the temptation to force the match early. The longer the contest remains level, the more Bellingham’s running, England’s bench depth and Kane’s penalty-area movement could influence tired defenders.

WHERE ARGENTINA CAN HURT ENGLAND

England’s full-backs will face a difficult balance.

They must advance far enough to support the wingers, but every forward run creates a transition opportunity for Argentina. If England lose possession while both full-backs are high, Messi can receive in open space and immediately release Álvarez behind the defensive line.

England’s centre-backs should avoid stepping into midfield unless Rice has covered the space behind them. One mistimed challenge could allow Argentina to turn a harmless possession into a direct attack against Jordan Pickford.

Set pieces also offer Argentina a route into the match. Cristian Romero, Lisandro Martínez and Argentina’s other aerial targets can attack England’s zonal defenders aggressively. England cannot afford to concede cheap free kicks around the penalty area, particularly with Messi capable of shooting or delivering toward the far post.

WHY ENGLAND CAN WIN

Argentina possess the best individual creator in the match. England possess the more complete collection of attacking profiles.

Tuchel can use Kane as a reference point, Bellingham as a runner and Saka as a one-on-one threat. He can also change the tempo from the bench without completely changing the structure. That flexibility matters in a semifinal likely to feature long periods of caution followed by sudden momentum swings.

England have also shown that falling behind does not end their game plan. They recovered from 1-0 down against Norway, with Bellingham scoring both the equaliser and the winner. England produced 14 attempts, seven on target and 137 completed line-breaking passes in that victory.

Argentina remain unbeaten and have won all six of their matches at this World Cup, scoring at least twice in each one. But their knockout performances against Cabo Verde, Egypt and Switzerland have also contained moments when opponents reached their back line and disrupted their control.