ASEAN faces South China Sea rift at 49th Manila summit

ASEAN leaders opened the 49th summit in Manila on Sunday as Philippines-China tensions over the South China Sea dominated the agenda, the Times of India reported on Nov. 15, citing Reuters.

The dispute matters because a two-year sequence of 2025 and 2026 confrontations has converged with decades-long China-ASEAN Code of Conduct talks, which diplomats said will miss this year’s agreed completion target.

The friction has intensified under Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., with Manila moving back toward the United States as Washington supports the Philippines in maritime disputes with Beijing. The report described a pattern involving coast guard vessels, naval ships, aircraft, military exercises and diplomatic exchanges.

In January 2025, the Philippines sent ships and aircraft to monitor China’s largest coast guard vessel in its exclusive economic zone, a maritime area where a coastal state claims resource rights. The next month, Manila accused the Chinese navy of a dangerous flyby near Scarborough Shoal, which Beijing disputed.

Scarborough Shoal has remained central to the dispute across both years. China approved a national nature reserve there in September 2025, and later that month the Chinese coast guard fired water cannon at Philippine ships near the shoal. Manila called the action aggressive and said one person was injured.

The military dimension widened in 2026. The Philippines and the U.S. held joint exercises near Scarborough Shoal in January, Manila joined maritime drills with the U.S. and Japan in February, and China also held exercises in disputed waters, according to the report.

In March, Manila said a Chinese navy vessel directed fire-control radar at one of its ships. Fire-control radar is a targeting system used to guide or aim weapons. China said that month it had expelled two Philippine aircraft over Scarborough Shoal.

The dispute has also reached areas linked to resources and supply lines. Manila said in May that a Chinese vessel conducted illegal research near Reed Bank, an area described in the report as believed to be rich in gas resources. In September, the Philippines accused China of obstructing a resupply mission to its troops at Second Thomas Shoal.

Beijing has made its own accusations. China said in January 2026 that it had driven away Philippine aircraft that illegally entered airspace over Scarborough Shoal, and it separately said it drove away a U.S. destroyer near the shoal. The U.S. Navy said its operation complied with international law.

Diplomatic tensions have followed the maritime incidents. In June, Beijing announced sanctions against Philippine Defence Secretary Gilberto Teodoro, accusing him of having “repeatedly made erroneous remarks concerning China.” In October, Manila summoned China’s ambassador over remarks it considered threatening.

What to watch: A special U.S.-ASEAN meeting is planned for Nov. 17. U.S. President Donald Trump is among world leaders due to attend the summit, while Chinese Premier Li Qiang is expected and President Xi Jinping is not. Three regional diplomats said China and ASEAN had made progress on a Code of Conduct but would not conclude the negotiations this year.

Source: news article, Times of India, Nov. 15, 2026