Treasury 10-year yields biased higher into data week

Markets entered the week with Treasury 10-year yields biased higher as investors awaited two key US releases: August core personal consumption expenditures and the September jobs report.

August core PCE and Oct. 2 jobs

The August core PCE price index — the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge — is due this week and will be watched for any signs of persistent underlying price pressure. Data for headline and core PCE help shape the Fed's view on the pace of policy accommodation, officials have said.

The September monthly jobs report is scheduled for Friday, Oct. 2. Payrolls, the unemployment rate and hourly earnings together provide a near-term read on labor-market slack, and traders treat the package as a principal input for the path of policy-sensitive yields.

Yields have shown sensitivity to upside inflation or employment surprises this year; any stronger-than-expected readings would likely push Treasury yields higher as markets reassess the timing and scale of future rate moves. Conversely, softer figures could steady or lower nominal yields as expectations of tighter policy ease.

Markets will focus on the September jobs report on Friday, Oct. 2, with traders watching payrolls and wage details for clear signals that would plausibly move Treasury yields within hours of the release.