Tesla-SpaceX merger faces 24% Polymarket odds despite Barclays call

Barclays analyst Dan Levy said Wednesday that Tesla and SpaceX could unveil a merger by early December, while Polymarket bettors priced 24% odds by Dec. 31, a Benzinga article said Oct. 15.

The gap matters because Levy’s call, covering Tesla Inc. and Space Exploration Technologies Corp., points to a possible AI-integration transaction before Tesla’s annual shareholder meeting, while Kalshi bettors assigned 19% odds to a merger.

Benzinga, citing Bloomberg, said Levy viewed the possible deal as a move toward “vertical integration” of AI technology. The article did not report an announced transaction, board approval or shareholder vote.

Levy said a timeline extending into “October or perhaps even until early November” could “challenge merger approval,” according to the article. He also said 11% of outstanding votes at Tesla’s 2025 annual meeting were broker non-votes, which he said were “effectively counted as against votes.” Broker non-votes occur when brokers lack instructions from beneficial owners on certain proposals.

Prediction-market pricing was more cautious on the near-term timing. Kalshi bettors put the odds of a merger before May 2027 at 52% and before 2028 at 71%, while Polymarket bettors assigned a 63% chance before Dec. 31, 2027.

Benzinga said it has a data collaboration agreement with Kalshi.

The shares moved lower in overnight trading on Wednesday. SpaceX fell 2.08% to $148.99, while Tesla fell 1.05% to $363.31, according to Benzinga.

Governance would be central to any deal. Benzinga cited a June 2026 filing showing Musk held 19.9% voting power in Tesla, below the 25% voting control he has expressed interest in holding. At SpaceX, Benzinga said Class B shares carry 10 times the voting rights of Class A shares and that Musk holds roughly 85% of voting rights after the company’s IPO earlier this year.

The article also said SpaceX acquired Musk’s artificial-intelligence startup xAI in February, creating a combined SpaceX-xAI entity valued at $1.25 trillion. That valuation was 25% above the $1 trillion mark, according to Atlas360 calculations, underscoring the scale of any further Musk-company consolidation. The next measurable test for Levy’s call is whether Tesla and SpaceX announce a merger before the end of December.

Source: news article, Benzinga, Oct. 15, 2026, citing Bloomberg.