Oil executives see WTI near $88

U.S. oil executives expect WTI near $88 at the end of 2026, below spot near $99, the survey showed; that gap highlights refining margins and fuel spreads as central market considerations.

Reaction pending.

Diesel spreads and margins

The third-quarter energy survey, collected Sept. 16–24 from 125 firms, found 48% of respondents said diesel spreads would take more than four quarters to return to 2025 levels, versus 36% for gasoline, the survey showed. Two services firms commented that high diesel prices are eroding their margins, and other respondents cited geopolitical uncertainty and regulatory unpredictability as ongoing risks.

Executives on average forecast year-end WTI at about $88 a barrel, below spot near $99 during the survey period, with a range from $70 to $126, the survey showed. On natural gas, respondents expected Henry Hub near $3.30 per million British thermal units at year-end, against spot near $3 and a forecast range of $2.20 to $8.

Activity and spending data showed mixed signals: the business activity index fell to 38.8 from 46.1, oil production rose to 20.7 from 15.0, natural gas production rose to 14.8 from 3.7, employment climbed to 15.2 from 4.7, and the capital spending index fell to 32.8 from 40.9.

The largest share of respondents, 28%, said Persian Gulf crude exports would return to normal by June 30, 2027, the survey showed, making that date a market milestone to watch.