Minister Şimşek says inflation fell below 30 percent

Minister Şimşek said on October 5, 2026, annual consumer inflation fell below 30 percent for the first time in 57 months, a development officials said could ease pressure on the lira.

Officials said the drop was recorded in the latest monthly consumer price figures and marked the lowest annual rate since late 2021.

Below 30% after 57 months

Officials framed the reading as a milestone for price dynamics, saying it narrows the inflation gap that has weighed on the currency. They added that the composition of the decline—whether driven by food, energy or core prices—will matter for durable currency gains.

If inflation remains under 30%, officials said the change could reduce the inflation premium embedded in FX risk pricing; in that scenario, traders may scale back hedges that have boosted demand for foreign exchange.

If the drop proves temporary, officials warned, the lira could face renewed volatility as expectations adjust.

Markets will watch whether the lira sustains any gains by October 31, 2026; officials and traders will use the coming monthly releases to judge if the disinflation path is durable or reversible.