Liberals Claim Victory in Nepean Byelection Boost for Opposition Leader Jess Wilson

The Liberal Party has declared victory in a critical Victorian byelection, which many observers viewed as an indicator for the upcoming state elections in November. Liberal candidate Anthony Marsh appeared to secure a strong position in the Mornington Peninsula seat of Nepean, providing a significant boost to opposition leader Jess Wilson.

With nearly eighty percent of the votes tallied, Marsh garnered 38.5 percent of the primary vote and achieved 63.4 percent on a two-candidate preferred basis. Initially, the Victorian Electoral Commission tracked the two-candidate count as a contest between the Liberals and independent candidate Tracee Hutchison. However, Hutchison, who was an early frontrunner, later fell behind One Nation's Darren Hercus.

One Nation's Strong Showing

Darren Hercus of One Nation secured 24.7 percent of the primary vote, surpassing Tracee Hutchison, who received 21.3 percent. Speaking to his supporters, Anthony Marsh expressed his gratitude, stating, "I am so glad I could bring it home for you tonight. This is the honour of my life to be standing here as the next member for Nepean." He further pledged to "be on the ground each and every single day fighting for the people of Nepean as we lead into one of the most important state elections that we’ve seen."

Jess Wilson welcomed the outcome but acknowledged that the party had more work ahead before the November state poll. Labor chose not to contest the byelection. Despite retaining Nepean, the Liberal Party experienced nearly a ten percent swing against it in the primary vote compared to the previous election.

Electoral Context and Local Issues

The byelection on Saturday was prompted by the sudden resignation of Victorian Liberal deputy leader, Sam Groth. The Liberal Party has held the seat since its creation, with the exception of a four-year period when it was held by Labor. Marsh confirmed he did not reside in the electorate and therefore could not vote for himself, but highlighted his three terms as mayor in the area over the past five years.

Hercus described the race as tight, noting a mixed reaction from voters who expressed frustration with unfulfilled promises. He mentioned, "We’ve had a few Liberal voters come over to us for frustrations they’ve been feeling with their own party." One Nation leader Pauline Hanson campaigned with Hercus but was not present on polling day, with Hercus remarking, "People will vote for her rather than me."

Before the vote count, Hutchison told reporters that many voters were seeking an alternative, feeling that major parties had neglected the area for decades. She emphasized her local connection, stating, "I am putting myself forward as someone who is of this place, who cares deeply about this place."

Benjamin Moffitt, a senior politics lecturer at Monash University, indicated that One Nation's strong performance, consistent with national polling and the South Australian election results, could pose challenges for the Liberals in the Victorian state election. Moffitt commented, "If they even do somewhat well in Nepean, that’s a real problem for the Liberal party." The Nepean electorate encompasses affluent areas like Sorrento, Portsea, and Flinders, alongside lower socioeconomic areas such as Capel Sound, previously known as Rosebud West. Although officially part of metropolitan Melbourne, the Mornington Peninsula lacks comparable services, with public transport and a planned renovation of Rosebud hospital being key local concerns.