IEA cuts oil demand outlook after Hormuz closure
IEA cuts oil demand outlook after Iran’s Strait of Hormuz closure, citing a 10.1 million bpd supply loss and wider economic risks.
Lauren Collins ·
The International Energy Agency (IEA) on Tuesday sharply lowered its projections for global oil supply and demand growth for 2026, pointing to disruptions linked to the United States-Israel conflict with Iran and the resulting drag on the global economy.
In its updated assessment, the IEA said it now expects global oil demand to fall by 80,000 barrels per day (bpd) this year. That marks a major shift from its prior view of a 640,000 bpd year-on-year increase. The agency framed the revision as a response to a sudden deterioration in market conditions and economic expectations tied to the conflict-driven shock.
The report connected the change in outlook to Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz , a key maritime route for energy flows. The IEA said the closure led to a loss of 10.1 million bpd of global oil supply during March. It also cited attacks on Middle Eastern energy infrastructure as compounding the disruption, describing the combined impact as the largest oil supply interruption in history.