U.S. Gasoline Prices May Stay Above Pre-War Levels Until 2027, Analysts Say

U.S. gasoline prices are likely to remain above pre-war levels until at least early to mid-2027 even if a U.S.-Iran peace agreement is reached and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz resumes, according to analysts cited in an sources report.

The average U.S. retail price for regular gasoline was $4.54 per gallon on Wednesday, compared with just under $3 before the war, according to AAA data referenced by sources.

A gradual decline even if shipping routes reopen Market watchers said some price relief could come soon asourceser the Strait of Hormuz truly reopens. Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said prices could drop by about one-third of the wartime increase within one to three months.

De Haan added that the next third of the decline could take another three to six months, with a full return to pre-war levels pushed out to early or mid-2027.

Why the recovery could take longer Analysts pointed to operational and market factors that may slow the move back to pre-war prices. Those include the time needed to revive oil loadings and transit from the Middle East and to restore crude production that Persian Gulf producers scaled back when export routes were disrupted.

Rob Smith, a fuels analyst at S&P Global Energy, told sources that even with a “true and lasting” end to the conflict, it would still take several months for traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to return to pre-war levels.

Rystad Energy has described a 30-day phased reopening of the strait as an “optimistic scenario,” with meaningful volume recovery no earlier than June.

Retail pricing dynamics sources also noted the “rocket and feathers” dynamic in retail fuel markets: pump prices tend to rise quickly when oil prices jump but can fall more slowly even when crude prices decline, in part because stations work through higher-cost inventory bought earlier.