Ethiopia and Eritrea are on the brink of war again

Ethiopia-Eritrea Tensions Escalate

Tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea have escalated, raising concerns about renewed conflict in the Horn of Africa. This follows Ethiopia's Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's recent statements regarding Red Sea access and accusations against Eritrea of coordinating with Ethiopian rebel factions.

Since February, Ethiopia has redeployed federal troops to the Tigray region, where flights from Mekelle to the capital have been intermittently suspended and banking services disrupted. The Ethiopian government accuses Eritrea of aggression and collaboration with a faction of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF).

Concurrently, the TPLF has demanded the return of agricultural lands seized by Amhara militias and the restoration of its legal status, moving to reinstate its pre-war legislative council on May 5.

This internal instability extends beyond Tigray, with federal forces engaged against the Fano militia in Amhara and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) in Oromia. Both Fano and OLA are suspected of receiving support from Eritrea and the TPLF. Prime Minister Abiy, facing general elections in June 2026, has increasingly emphasized Ethiopia's need for Red Sea access, a stance that has historically been a flashpoint with Eritrea, which gained independence in 1993, leaving Ethiopia landlocked.

5 billion annually to Djibouti for port access.

A direct military confrontation would incur significant costs, including potential suspension of International Monetary Fund support and a security vacuum in Amhara and Oromia due to troop redeployments. Eritrea's strategy appears to involve supporting internal Ethiopian conflicts to overstretch the Ethiopian National Defense Force, preventing an offensive. Ethiopia, in turn, supports an Afari armed group hostile to the Eritrean government.

While direct war remains a possibility, conflict on Ethiopian soil involving indirect support from Eritrea is currently more probable.