El Niño raises India's Oct–Dec dry outlook

Meteorological officials said El Niño will likely produce below‑normal rainfall across India in October–December 2026, raising pressure on crop yields and domestic commodity supplies. Traders and processors said they were monitoring the outlook for implications to rice, pulses and oilseeds.

Oct–Dec rainfall shortfall risk

Officials said the post‑monsoon window is now expected to run drier than average, a shift forecasters linked to the developing El Niño pattern. The single official outlook released today flagged widespread below‑normal rainfall for the October–December period, officials said.

Commodity market participants said a drier Oct–Dec season could reduce late-season soil moisture and complicate sowing for winter crops, with upward pressure on local prices and the potential to increase import needs. Processors and traders noted that oilseeds and pulses are most sensitive to shortfalls in the post‑monsoon months, though the pace and geographic pattern of deficits will determine market impact, they said.

Officials and traders said the next monthly bulletin will be watched for updates to the magnitude and geography of the shortfall. Markets and supply-chain managers should track planting reports and price series through winter; a clearer picture of supply needs should emerge by December 1, 2026, officials said.