EIA raises 2026 Brent forecast to $97.44 a barrel

The U.S. Energy Information Administration raised its 2026 Brent crude forecast to $97.44 a barrel from $96.32 in its Nov. 11 Short-Term Energy Outlook, according to the report cited by Anadolu Agency.

Brent, the international crude benchmark, averaged $124 a barrel in October, $10 above September, reaching its highest inflation-adjusted level since July 2022, the EIA report said.

The EIA also lifted its 2027 Brent estimate to $85.78 a barrel from $83.74. The November report marked the agency’s fourth consecutive monthly increase in its oil-price projections.

The report attributed the higher forecasts to shrinking global oil inventories and the effect of Middle East conflicts on supply and transport. It cited attacks on oil tankers in the Gulf, limits on maritime shipping capacity and higher freight costs as factors tightening supply.

The agency said Brent’s spot price is expected to trade around $100 a barrel for the rest of 2026. Even so, it kept its view that prices should trend lower in 2027 as inventories rebuild and Middle East production disruptions ease.

For West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. crude benchmark, the EIA raised its 2026 average price forecast to $88.29 a barrel from $88.21. It lifted its 2027 WTI estimate to $80.54 a barrel from $79.74.

Oil-stock data point to the supply pressure behind the revisions. The EIA estimated global petroleum inventories fell by an average 1.2 million barrels a day in the third quarter of 2026 and forecast that stocks would begin rising again in the fourth quarter.

The expected rebuild becomes larger in 2027. The agency forecast global oil inventories to increase by an average 3.5 million barrels a day in the first half of next year, a shift it said could pull Brent below $90 a barrel in the second quarter.

The EIA also said crude output in Middle Eastern countries outside Iran is expected to return largely to pre-conflict average levels by the end of the second quarter of 2027. It forecast Brent’s spot price to ease gradually to an average $77 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2027 as inventories recover.

The production outlook underpins that price path. The agency projected global crude and other liquid-fuels output to fall by an average 4.6 million barrels a day in 2026 from a year earlier, then rise by 6.7 million barrels a day in 2027.

Total global crude and other liquid-fuels production is expected to average 101.69 million barrels a day in 2026 and 108.4 million barrels a day in 2027, according to the EIA. U.S. crude output is forecast to average 13.86 million barrels a day this year and reach a record 14.3 million barrels a day next year.

The report said Middle East crude production has been recovering as the amount of output offline because of conflict fell to an average 2.5 million barrels a day in October from a peak of 10.9 million barrels a day in May.

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook report via Anadolu Agency/Haberler, Nov. 11, 2026