A360
Key Takeaways✦ Atlas AI
01
Russia considers attacks from Belarus.
02
Targets: Ukraine's north or NATO.
03
Ukraine strengthens northern defenses.
Atlas AI
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Friday that Russia is seeking to draw Belarus deeper into the war and is considering plans for new attacks launched from Belarusian territory, including a possible strike on northern Ukraine or a NATO member state. Zelenskiy made the remarks on the Telegram messaging app after meetings with Ukrainian military and intelligence officials. He did not provide details of the alleged plans.
Zelenskiy said Ukraine has intelligence about additional contacts between Russia and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko aimed at persuading Minsk to join what he described as “new Russian aggressive operations.” He said the plans under consideration could involve operations “to the south and north of Belarusian territory.”
He said the potential targets could be the Chernihiv-Kyiv direction in Ukraine or “one of the NATO countries” directly from Belarus. Belarus borders Ukraine to the south and NATO members Poland, Lithuania and Latvia to the north and west.
There was no immediate response from Moscow or Minsk to Zelenskiy’s comments. Zelenskiy has repeatedly said Russia is trying to expand Belarus’ role in the conflict.
Belarus’ role in the war
Lukashenko, a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, allowed Belarusian territory to be used during Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Belarusian troops have not been deployed to fight in Ukraine, according to Zelenskiy’s account.
Minsk has since agreed to host Russian tactical nuclear weapons and hypersonic Oreshnik missiles on its territory. Zelenskiy said these developments underscore the need for Ukraine to monitor the northern border closely.
Ukraine orders stronger northern defenses
Zelenskiy said he instructed Ukraine’s defense forces to prepare a response plan and to strengthen defenses in the northern Chernihiv and Kyiv regions. He did not say what additional steps Ukraine might take or provide a timeline for the measures.
Officials in Kyiv have said they will continue to assess Belarus-related risks as the war continues and as Russia’s military posture near Ukraine’s northern frontier evolves.
