FPI projects Lions, Saints and Giants as 2026 worst-to-first contenders

Football Power Index projections for the 2026 NFL season identify the Detroit Lions, New Orleans Saints and New York Giants as the most likely teams to jump from last in their divisions in 2025 to first in 2026. Detroit is rated with the clearest path, with New Orleans and New York credible threats in their divisions. The projections are preseason estimates that will adjust as roster moves, injuries and depth-chart decisions reshape teams ahead of kickoff.

Since the NFL’s 2002 realignment into eight four-team divisions, more than two dozen clubs have pulled off a worst-to-first leap, including New England in 2024 and Chicago a season after finishing last. Those precedents, alongside current ratings and schedules, underpin the model’s early view of the 2026 landscape.

FPI methodology and recent signals

Model inputs and schedule strength

The index blends betting market win totals with roster and phase assessments — including quarterback depth and special teams inputs — to produce predictive ratings. It then rolls those ratings through the 2026 schedule to estimate division and playoff odds. Teams with stable coaching staffs, healthier cores and favorable opponent profiles tend to gain ground in these simulations.

Form and injury normalization

Late-season improvements, Year 2 continuity for new staffs and normalized injury luck are flagged as catalysts. Conversely, quarterback uncertainty, difficult cross-division draws and thin depth can cap upside even for talented rosters.

Team-by-team outlook

Detroit Lions: model confidence and manageable slate

Detroit holds a 38.2% chance to win the division and a 68.4% chance to reach the playoffs. The optimism rests on two pillars: strong performance indicators and a favorable schedule. The Lions finished last season third by both FPI and DVOA, with both 2024 and 2025 showing top-10 marks on offense, defense and special teams. Despite ending last in the division, Detroit posted a winning record and was only one game from second in the NFC North.

Availability could normalize. Detroit ranked last in adjusted defensive games lost last season, and only Arizona suffered more total injuries overall. A healthier core paired with a slate rated 27th-easiest by average projected opponent DVOA gives the Lions runway. They draw Arizona rather than tougher NFC West foes and face the Giants and Titans instead of stiffer opponents assigned to divisional rivals.

New Orleans Saints: second-year staff and soft division

The Saints carry a 19.3% chance to win the NFC South and a 23.8% chance to make the postseason. History suggests teams often improve in Year 2 under a new staff, and New Orleans fits that profile with coach Kellen Moore and defensive coordinator Brandon Staley entering their second season together. The data reflects an uptick: through Week 9 of last year, DVOA ranked the Saints 29th on offense and 21st on defense; from Weeks 10–18, those slots improved to 26th on offense and eighth on defense.

Context matters in the NFC South. The division has produced a 9-8 or worse champion in three of the past four seasons, and pre-2026 ratings cluster the field closely. Projections place Tampa Bay 18th in overall strength, with the other three clubs — including New Orleans — bunched between 24th and 26th. If the defense sustains its late-season form and the offense finds incremental gains under Moore, the Saints’ path is realistic.

New York Giants: health, new staff and upside

The Giants are given an 11.6% chance to capture the NFC East and a 22% chance to make the playoffs. Their case leans on multiple levers: the return of key injured playmakers, a new staff led by John Harbaugh and the potential jump from a second-year quarterback. New York expects wideout Malik Nabers back from a knee injury that cost him much of last season and running back Cam Skattebo following a midseason ankle issue. The front office also added veteran help to bolster the defense.

Coaching transitions can create early turbulence, but the upside is notable if the offense stabilizes and the defense benefits from the new additions. The NFC East remains demanding, which keeps New York’s probability below New Orleans’, yet the combination of healthier skill talent and established leadership raises the Giants’ ceiling relative to other last-place finishers.

What could shift the odds

Projections always carry uncertainty. Teams can develop in ways models cannot fully anticipate, as seen when Houston vaulted from 3-13-1 in 2023 to division champions on the back of C.J. Stroud’s breakout rookie season. Similar outlier developments — an unexpected quarterback leap, a healthier-than-expected defense or a softened schedule — could reshape these odds before and during the 2026 campaign.

Training camp health, depth-chart calls and early-season results will be the next indicators to watch as the 2026 outlook crystallizes for Detroit, New Orleans and New York.