Working-age population declines deepen in New York and peers

New Census Bureau data show the working-age population is shifting toward the South and Mountain West, widening talent gaps for employers in slower-growing regions.

The agency’s latest state-by-state estimates track changes in residents ages 25 to 64 between April 1, 2020, and July 1, 2025. The figures were released Thursday as part of a broader update on population and age distributions by region.

South and Mountain West dominate workforce-age gains

All 10 of the fastest-growing states for prime working years are in the West or South, according to the Census Bureau’s estimates. Utah posted the largest increase, with its 25-to-64 population rising 10.8% over the five-year period.

The concentration of growth in these regions indicates where the labor supply is expanding most quickly. For companies adding locations, expanding operations, or building hiring pipelines, faster growth in the core workforce-age bracket can translate into a larger pool of available workers over time.

The Census Bureau’s release focuses on a critical segment of the labor market: people most likely to be in mid-career and at peak earning and working years. By tracking the 25-to-64 group, the data provide a clearer view of potential labor-force capacity than overall population counts alone.

Northeast and Midwest lag, with notable declines

The Midwest and Northeast generally trailed in the same measure, and together they made up roughly half of the 10 weakest-performing states. That pattern underscores a growing geographic imbalance in where working-age residents are accumulating.

New York stood out among large states on the downside, ranking 47th nationally. The state’s 25-to-64 population fell 2.9% from 2020 to 2025, reflecting an outright contraction in its core workforce base over that span.

For employers headquartered in slower-growth states, the shift can show up as higher competition for experienced hires and added pressure on retention. A shrinking working-age cohort can also constrain local expansion plans, particularly in industries that depend on steady inflows of mid-skill and professional workers.

Why the trend matters even in a calmer hiring cycle

The current labor market has been described by some economists as “low-hire, low-fire,” reflecting a period in which companies are making fewer new hires and laying off fewer workers. That dynamic can temporarily mute the urgency of recruiting challenges.

However, the longer-run concern remains the overall pace of US labor-force growth, which many analysts view as slowing in part because of population aging. When a larger share of residents move into older age brackets, the growth of prime working-age groups can decelerate even if the total population continues to rise.

In that context, the Census Bureau’s regional split is significant: areas adding working-age residents may find it easier to sustain employment growth, while areas losing them may face tighter constraints. For state and local governments, sustained declines can affect tax bases, public service demand, and the ability to support employer recruitment initiatives.

Next steps to watch include whether these state-level patterns persist beyond 2025 and how employers respond through compensation strategies, remote-work policies, and site-selection decisions. The Census Bureau’s future releases will provide additional checkpoints on whether the South and Mountain West continue to pull ahead in prime-age population growth.