Markets gauge risk as Bitcoin options expiry nears Friday

Bitcoin options expiry totaling roughly $10 billion on Deribit is sharpening trader focus on downside risks as the price struggles to hold near $60,000.

The contracts are scheduled to mature at 4 p.m. Friday in Singapore, according to Deribit, the largest venue for crypto options trading. With Bitcoin down sharply from its peak and much of the options market positioned for gains, the expiry could amplify short-term repositioning.

Large Deribit expiry collides with bullish positioning

Deribit’s chief commercial officer Jean-David Pequignot said the options “book” had been oriented toward higher prices over a medium-term horizon. He noted that the market has since been “marked against a spot that has slipped,” leaving what he described as consensus long-call positioning out of step with the current price.

When a large share of outstanding options reflect bullish bets, a falling underlying asset can pressure traders to adjust hedges or reduce exposure ahead of settlement. That process can translate into more defensive positioning, particularly if holders of calls are forced to reassess the probability those contracts finish in-the-money.

The notional figure—about $10 billion—signals the scale of exposure tied to the Friday event. Notional value does not equal profit or loss, but it is commonly used to describe the size of derivatives markets and the potential for concentrated flows around expiries.

Bitcoin trades near $60,000 after steep drawdown

Bitcoin fell below $60,000 during New York trading on Wednesday, touching $59,023—its lowest level since October 2024. By 12:30 p.m. Thursday in Singapore, it had recovered to around $60,800.

The move extends a prolonged slump: Bitcoin has struggled to regain momentum since an Oct. 10 market crash and remains more than 50% below its record high. The drop has coincided with weakening institutional enthusiasm and broader macroeconomic headwinds, leaving fewer clear catalysts for sustained risk-on demand.

Derivatives markets often react quickly to sharp spot moves because options positions can require dynamic hedging. In practice, that can mean traders selling into weakness or adding protective structures as volatility rises, especially when a major expiry concentrates decision points into a narrow window.

Technical signals add to bearish narrative

Bitcoin is also trading below its 200-week moving average, a long-watched technical level that many market participants associate with extended downtrends. While no single indicator determines direction, a break below long-term trend measures can reinforce pessimism and encourage further caution among trend-following investors.

For traders heading into Friday, the key issue is whether the options market’s previously optimistic skew will unwind in a way that increases short-term selling pressure or stabilizes once the expiry passes. A large expiration can remove near-term uncertainty, but it can also expose how aggressively participants have been positioned on one side of the market.

Next steps for investors will likely center on how Bitcoin behaves around the expiry time in Singapore and whether it can reclaim key technical levels afterward. With price still anchored near $60,000 and sentiment fragile, markets will be watching for signs that positioning resets lead to calmer trading—or renewed stress.