Mendoza projected to lead rookie QB yards; Tate, Love headline 2026 class

Early projections for the 2026 NFL season forecast Las Vegas Raiders No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza to lead rookie quarterbacks with 3,052 passing yards and 14 touchdowns across 14 starts. Released nearly a month after the draft, the outlook presents a rookie quarterback group with limited immediate impact. At the skill positions, No. 4 pick Carnell Tate (Tennessee) and No. 3 pick Jeremiyah Love (Arizona) are projected to headline the class at wide receiver and running back, respectively.

The forecast models full-season availability unless otherwise noted. It offers an initial view of how newly selected players could shape production across major offensive and defensive categories in their first season. The projections place Mendoza’s yardage almost exactly on trend with recent rookie starters while signaling a relatively modest touchdown total.

Mendoza’s projection aligns with long-run baselines. Since 2012, 32 rookie quarterbacks who appeared in at least 12 games averaged 3,051 passing yards and 16.7 touchdown passes, putting Mendoza’s projected yardage on the historical mean and his touchdown figure slightly below it. The outlook reflects current expectations for the Raiders’ receiving options and the likelihood of a controlled approach early in the year before full-volume usage once he is entrenched as the starter.

Early playing time typically follows draft capital at quarterback. From 2012 to 2025, 73% of first-round passers became starters by Week 4 of their rookie year, and 51% opened in Week 1. That precedent supports an early transition for a top pick such as Mendoza, even if initial depth-chart decisions delay his debut by a few weeks. A broader look at rookie outcomes since 2012 also underscores how rare immediate, high-end output can be for first-year passers.

Rookie quarterbacks in focus

Mendoza projected to pace rookie QBs

Mendoza’s 14 projected starts would lead this class and fit a common Year 1 pathway in which top selections take over before midseason. The model anticipates a modest touchdown rate relative to historical averages but a full complement of passing volume once he is entrenched as QB1. It also depicts a low-impact rookie quarterback class overall, with few first-year passers expected to open the season as starters.

Among first-round quarterbacks drafted since 2012, 17 reached 3,000 passing yards as rookies, and 16 threw at least 15 touchdown passes. Mendoza’s forecast falls just shy of those touchdown thresholds while matching typical rookie yardage for multi-start passers, reinforcing the expectation of steady but not elite Year 1 production.

Top skill-position leaders

Tate and Love headline skill positions

At wide receiver, Carnell Tate — the No. 4 overall pick by the Tennessee Titans — is projected to lead rookie wideouts with 1,065 receiving yards and five touchdowns. That expectation tracks with historical usage for top-10 receivers; since 2012, 12 of 16 wideouts drafted in the top 10 produced at least 865 yards as rookies, and the 13 who played at least 14 games averaged a 25% target share.

In the backfield, Jeremiyah Love — selected No. 3 overall by the Arizona Cardinals — is forecast to top rookie rushers with 1,129 yards and seven touchdowns. The projection assumes a 17-game season and factors in current depth-chart positioning and role without adjusting for potential missed time due to injury.

Methodology and outlook

How the projections were built

The rookie forecasts blend quantitative trends (league, team, coaching and player indicators) with qualitative assessments of depth charts and expected roles. They model full-season availability unless otherwise noted and include defensive categories such as tackles, sacks and interceptions to capture first-year impact beyond the headline offensive positions.

Training camp, preseason usage and roster moves will clarify opportunities through the summer. Expect updates as roles solidify and any injuries or depth-chart changes reshape projections ahead of Week 1.