US stock futures dip as Iran strike threat lifts oil

US stock futures slipped in early Asia trading as fresh warnings about possible military action against Iran unsettled markets, while crude prices moved higher.

S&P 500 futures fell about 0.6% after US cash markets were closed on Friday for a holiday. Brent crude gained more than 1% to around $81.50 a barrel, reflecting a renewed geopolitical risk premium.

The US dollar edged up against most major peers in the same session. Sterling weakened, with traders citing political uncertainty in the UK and growing speculation about Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s position.

Renewed strike language complicates Iran diplomacy

President Donald Trump renewed public threats of strikes tied to regional security, linking potential action to continued attacks by Hezbollah against Israel. The rhetoric landed as Washington and Tehran continued discussions aimed at addressing Iran’s nuclear program and maritime access.

Conflicting signals emerged on Sunday over the status of the talks. Iranian media reported that Iran had stopped negotiations in response to Trump’s comments, but people familiar with the matter said the discussions were still underway.

Alongside the nuclear file, a key focus has been ensuring the Strait of Hormuz remains open on a lasting basis. The waterway is one of the world’s most important energy corridors, and any perceived threat to shipping there can quickly affect oil prices.

Risk appetite tested after tech-led gains

The shift in futures and energy markets comes after a period of resilience in global equities, supported by a technology-driven rally. Investors have been weighing upbeat momentum against persistent conflict risk in the Middle East.

A global equities benchmark has risen about 15% so far this quarter, putting it on track for its strongest quarterly advance in six years. The rally has continued despite the war backdrop, aided by expectations that the US and Iran could maintain a diplomatic track after agreeing to an interim peace deal.

Monday’s price action highlighted how quickly that optimism can be challenged by headlines. Equity futures moved lower as traders reassessed the likelihood of escalation, while oil rose as a hedge against potential supply or transit disruptions.

What the market will monitor next

Near-term direction is likely to depend on whether talks produce tangible steps that reduce uncertainty around Iran’s nuclear program and regional security. Clear confirmation that negotiations are continuing could stabilize risk assets, while further threats or operational moves could reinforce demand for dollars and energy exposure.

Investors will also watch for follow-through in crude after Brent’s move back above $81, and for any signs of volatility in shipping lanes tied to the Strait of Hormuz. In equities, the durability of the tech-led advance may hinge on whether geopolitics remains a headline risk or turns into a sustained macro shock.