A360
Key Takeaways✦ Atlas AI
01
U.S. futures gained ahead of key data.
02
Trump's China visit focuses on market access.
03
Fed rate hike probability increased to 28%.
Atlas AI
U.S. equity futures rose early Wednesday, May 13, 2026, as investors looked ahead to key U.S. economic data and a visit by President Donald Trump to China. S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures recouped some of the prior session’s losses, while Dow futures were lower. Markets also weighed developments tied to the Iran conflict and moves in oil prices.
At 05:35 a.m. ET, S&P 500 E-minis were up 16.75 points, or 0.23%, and Nasdaq 100 E-minis gained 239.75 points, or 0.82%. Dow E-minis fell 149 points, or 0.3%.
In Beijing, Trump is expected to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping and press for greater market access for U.S. businesses. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang is part of a delegation of corporate leaders traveling with the president, and the two sides are considering extending a truce linked to Chinese rare earth export curbs.
Oil prices fell on the day, snapping a three-session rally, a move that eased some concerns about energy-driven inflation pressures. Investors have been watching whether a prolonged conflict could keep energy prices elevated and complicate the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.
Fed leadership and inflation expectations
Markets were also digesting a leadership development at the central bank after the Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh to the Federal Reserve’s board on Tuesday. A vote to approve him as chair could come as soon as Wednesday, with Jerome Powell’s term set to end on Friday.
Stocks pulled back from record highs on Tuesday after U.S. consumer inflation posted its sharpest increase in three years in April. In rate markets, expectations for a Fed cut this year have largely faded, while the probability of at least a 25-basis-point hike by December rose to more than 28% from below 22% earlier in the week, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool.
Data in focus: producer prices and retail sales
Producer price data is due at 8:30 a.m. ET, followed by retail sales figures later in the week. Investors will be looking for signs of building input-cost pressures and any evidence that higher gasoline and energy costs are starting to squeeze other areas of consumer spending.
Traders will also watch how markets respond to the Beijing meetings and incoming data as expectations for the Fed’s next steps continue to adjust.
