UAE Quits OPEC, Reshaping Global Oil Power

UAE Exits OPEC, Challenging Saudi Influence The United Arab Emirates (UAE) departed from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on April 28, 2026, marking a significant challenge to Saudi Arabia's influence over global oil markets. This exit, which removes OPEC's fourth-largest producer from the previous year, coincides with ongoing disruptions to global oil supplies stemming from the Iran war, which has hindered Gulf crude exports.

The UAE's departure means Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman Al Saud will contend with the loss of a key member that accounted for 12% of OPEC's 2025 production. The UAE also possessed the second-largest spare capacity within the group, after Saudi Arabia. This development tests Prince Abdulaziz's leadership, which has evolved from diplomatic engagement to more unilateral decision-making, according to two delegates from the broader OPEC+ group.

The UAE's long-standing dissatisfaction with its OPEC production quota contributed to its decision to leave. This move introduces a new variable for Saudi Arabia, particularly if the Strait of Hormuz reopens and Gulf oil production normalizes.

The unconstrained UAE could significantly impact market dynamics, challenging the established control exerted by Prince Abdulaziz, who has previously asserted Saudi dominance in oil policy, including during a 2020 price war with Russia and in defiance of U.S. calls for production increases.