FPI tabs Rams early Super Bowl LXI favorites after Myles Garrett trade

The Los Angeles Rams opened as the preseason favorites to win Super Bowl LXI, according to initial Football Power Index (FPI) projections released Wednesday. The model gives Los Angeles a 14.9% chance to lift the Lombardi Trophy, more than four percentage points clear of the Buffalo Bills. The outlook reflects the Rams’ offense-led profile from last season and their splashy addition of edge rusher Myles Garrett in a recent trade.

FPI combines betting-market win totals, strength of schedule, quarterback depth differentials and special-teams ratings to simulate the season thousands of times. While Seattle beat Los Angeles to the NFC crown last season on the back of an elite defense and reached Super Bowl LX, the model expects regression on that side of the ball and pegs the Seahawks’ 2026 title odds at 7.0%.

The Rams, meanwhile, were already slight favorites before acquiring Garrett; the move nudged their chances higher and complements offseason additions at cornerback with Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson.

Los Angeles faces the league’s second-toughest 2026 slate by FPI, trailing only Arizona, yet still tops the projections. Buffalo sits as the No. 2 team, backed by Josh Allen’s standing among the league’s elite quarterbacks, while Baltimore re-enters the contender tier with Lamar Jackson under new head coach Jesse Minter. Within this framework, the model still leans toward offense carrying over more reliably year to year than defense, a dynamic that aids the Rams.

AFC–NFC picture in the projections

Most likely Super Bowl LXI matchups

The most probable title games are Bills–Rams at 4.8% and Ravens–Rams at 4.7%, followed by Bills–Seahawks and then Chiefs–Rams. Los Angeles’ chances remain strong despite the daunting schedule, reflecting both roster depth and the offense-defense stability tilt embedded in the model.

NFC West strength and Patriots’ positioning

The NFC West emerges as the league’s strongest division in the preseason view, with three teams — Rams, Seahawks and 49ers — in FPI’s top five. Despite a Super Bowl appearance four months ago, the New England Patriots rank 14th in the initial 2026 FPI, marking the first time since the metric’s inception in 2015 that a recent Super Bowl participant begins outside the top 10.

What could shift before kickoff

Preseason probabilities will move with new data

FPI is probabilistic and will update once the season begins, incorporating game-by-game performance across offense, defense and special teams, adjusted for opponent quality and rest. Training-camp developments, roster moves and betting markets could still move these early percentages before Week 1.