DraftKings sets 2026 NFC North win totals: Lions, Packers 10.5, Bears 9.5

DraftKings Sportsbook has released its 2026 NFL over/under win totals for the NFC North, setting Detroit and Green Bay at 10.5 wins, Chicago at 9.5 and Minnesota at 8.5. The early pricing signals another tight race after a volatile 2025, with strength of schedule, roster turnover and health expected to shape outcomes this fall. The numbers also reflect how thin the margins were across the division last season.

Chicago enters 2026 as the defending division champion after going 11-6, while Detroit fell back to 9-8 one year after a 15-2 surge. Green Bay again profiled as a playoff fringe team, and Minnesota finished 9-8 amid quarterback uncertainty. Against that backdrop, bookmakers have clustered three teams near double digits and left the Vikings a step behind.

Early lines like these are starting points, not predictions. They will adjust through the summer with injuries, training camp developments and any late roster moves, but they offer a first read on where oddsmakers see the balance of power.

NFC North projections by team

Bears face toughest slate, regression risks

Chicago’s total sits at 9.5 despite last season’s 11-6 record and division title. The projection is weighed down by the league’s toughest strength of schedule, based on opponents’ combined 2025 records (.550). Recent history is not kind to teams in that position: the club entering with the toughest schedule has not won a playoff game in nine straight years, according to league research.

Several indicators also point to potential regression. The Bears set an NFL record by winning seven games when trailing in the final two minutes (including playoffs) and led the league with 33 takeaways — both difficult trends to repeat year over year. Key defensive departures, including Kevin Byard, Nahshon Wright and Tremaine Edmunds, add to caution around an encore.

Lions draw a favorable path after injuries

Detroit opens at 10.5 wins following a 9-8 campaign in 2025, a sharp drop after going 15-2 the year before. Injuries were a major factor in last season’s slide, with 31 missed games among Week 1 starters in the secondary, per team tracking. With a healthier defensive backfield and what is rated as the NFL’s sixth-easiest schedule, the Lions are positioned for a rebound toward double-digit victories.

Packers’ number reflects talent and schedule pressure

Green Bay also opened at 10.5 wins but faces what is rated the third-toughest schedule. The Packers absorbed several notable departures, including pass rusher Rashan Gary and wide receiver Romeo Doubs, and will monitor star addition Micah Parsons, who tore his ACL in Week 15 of 2025 and could miss the start of the 2026 season. That combination of roster changes and a difficult slate tempers expectations even with a competitive total.

Vikings’ quarterback decision weighs on 8.5

Minnesota’s 8.5 projection arrives as the team evaluates its quarterback plan. The Vikings allowed Sam Darnold to leave in free agency, installed J.J. McCarthy in 2025 and finished 9-8, with McCarthy now on the verge of being replaced after a challenging first season as starter. The uncertainty at the most important position helps explain the more conservative total.

What to watch next

Markets will adjust as training camps open and preseason injuries or moves reshape depth charts. For now, early pricing points to another tight NFC North race in 2026, with schedule strength and quarterback stability likely to decide the order.