Arsenal lead by two as Premier League title race hits final week

The English Premier League 2025-26 season enters its final week with Arsenal and Manchester City separated by two points and two matches left before the campaign ends on May 24. Arsenal sit top and will secure the title if they win both remaining fixtures, while City must keep pace and hope for a slip. Goal difference is the primary tiebreaker if the clubs finish level on points.

Arsenal are chasing a 14th English top-flight crown and their first since 2004. Manchester City have won 10 league titles in total, six of them under current manager Pep Guardiola. City also hold a narrow advantage on goal difference and have the better league head-to-head results against Arsenal this season, winning one meeting and drawing the other.

The margins are fine. If Arsenal take six points, they cannot be caught. If they drop points, City could overtake them either on points or, if the totals match, on goal difference. With two rounds to play, both sides have little room for error.

Scheduling could add to the tension. Arsenal play first in the penultimate round, setting the bar for City’s response 24 hours later, before the final day brings simultaneous kick-offs on May 24.

Run-ins for Arsenal and Manchester City

Arsenal’s remaining fixtures

Arsenal close at home to already relegated Burnley on May 18, then visit Crystal Palace on May 24. Palace sit 15th and are safe from relegation. On paper, it is a manageable run-in, but any slip would hand the initiative to City.

Manchester City’s remaining fixtures

Manchester City travel to Bournemouth on May 19 before hosting Aston Villa on May 24. City likely need two wins and may also look to bolster their goal difference in case the title comes down to fine margins on the final day.

Title permutations and tiebreakers

What gives Arsenal the edge

The equation is clear for Mikel Arteta’s side: win both games and the trophy returns to north London for the first time in 22 years. Their two-point cushion means they control their fate regardless of City’s results. Protecting that lead, while managing nerves and game states, is central to their task.

Where City can still prevail

City’s route is narrower but realistic. If Arsenal draw or lose one of their two games, Guardiola’s side can capitalise by winning out. City also have a slim advantage on goal difference and lead the goals-scored column, factors that could decide the title if the teams finish level on points.

Head-to-head results this season favour City as well: they beat Arsenal 2-1 in one league meeting and drew 1-1 in the other. While those results underline City’s competitiveness against their rival, the title will be settled over 38 games and, if required, by goal difference should the points be equal.

With stakes this high and margins this small, both managers will be focused on control, concentration and taking chances. Any lapse over the final 180 minutes could reshape the table.

All eyes now turn to the penultimate round and then to May 24, when both sides finish at the same time and the Premier League trophy finds its destination.