Goldman Sachs Slashes Oil Outlook Amid US-Iran Thaw

Goldman Sachs lowered its near-term oil price outlook on April 9, 2026, citing a reduced geopolitical risk premium after a U.S.-Iran truce and early signs of improved crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The bank said the immediate market impact of the truce was reflected in its updated second-quarter projections, while it continued to flag the possibility of higher prices later in the year if the ceasefire does not hold.

For the second quarter of 2026, Goldman cut its Brent forecast to $90 per barrel from $99 . It also lowered its West Texas Intermediate (WTI) forecast to $87 per barrel from $91 . The bank linked the revisions to a pullback in the risk premium tied to Middle East tensions and to initial improvements in oil movements through Hormuz.

Goldman did not change its third-quarter forecasts, keeping Brent at $82 per barrel and WTI at $77 . It also set out a fourth-quarter base case of $80 for Brent and $75 for WTI. Alongside those baseline figures, the bank said risks remained tilted to the upside, particularly in the event the ceasefire fails.

In one downside-to-ceasefire scenario described by the bank, persistent Middle East production losses of about 2 million barrels per day could lift Brent to an average of $115 per barrel in the fourth quarter. Goldman also outlined a separate risk case in which an extended closure of the Strait of Hormuz could push Brent to $120 in the third quarter and $115 in the fourth quarter. These scenarios were presented as contingent outcomes tied to renewed disruption rather than the bank’s base case.

The revised outlook extended beyond oil into European gas pricing. Goldman lowered its second-quarter TTF gas forecast to 50 euros per megawatt-hour from 70 euros , assuming a gradual normalization of liquefied natural gas (LNG) flows through Hormuz by mid-April. It added that delays or infrastructure damage could drive prices above 75 euros per megawatt-hour , highlighting sensitivity to shipping conditions and operational constraints.

Market moves around the truce were described as brief. Brent initially reacted to the easing of tensions but later rebounded as reports pointed to the ceasefire’s fragility, reinforcing that uncertainty around the region remains a key variable for energy pricing. The central unknown, as framed by the bank, is whether the ceasefire endures and whether flows through the Strait of Hormuz continue to normalize as assumed in its near-term forecasts.