2026 NFL fantasy projections signal major shifts at quarterback, running back

Analyst projections for the 2026 NFL fantasy football season were published on June 5, 2026, outlining expected trends and rankings across positions. The outlook highlights notable movement at quarterback and running back, with several stars forecast to surge while others regress. Early calls include a record-chasing year for Chicago’s Caleb Williams and a league-leading fantasy season for Miami’s De'Von Achane. These are projections to guide draft planning, not guarantees.

Quarterback depth stands out in the early numbers. The projections point to multiple paths to top-12 production, from dual-threat profiles to efficient pocket passers, which could lead managers to prioritize premium running backs and wide receivers early and wait on a starter under center.

Quarterback outlook for 2026

Williams targets Bears records

The projections have Williams setting Chicago Bears franchise marks with 4,500 passing yards and 32 touchdown passes, plus seven rushing scores. That blend places the second-year starter firmly in weekly QB1 territory with both passing and rushing upside.

Purdy and Burrow pace TD race

San Francisco’s Brock Purdy is forecast to tie Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow for the league lead with 38 touchdown passes, with both quarterbacks projected to start all 17 games. Even without elite rushing output, those totals keep each inside the top fantasy tiers.

Mahomes healthy, Shough rising, NFC East depth

Patrick Mahomes is projected to be ready for Week 1, surpass 4,000 passing yards again and play the full season, though with reduced rushing compared with 2025. The analysis also points to a potential second-year leap from New Orleans Saints quarterback Tyler Shough, who could emerge as a weekly QB1 option.

The NFC East remains loaded: Jalen Hurts, Jayden Daniels, Dak Prescott and Jaxson Dart are all projected to finish inside the top 12, with the New York Giants’ Dart expected to throw more and run less as Malik Nabers returns from injury.

Running backs and roster construction

Achane headlines the position

At running back, the projections elevate De'Von Achane to the top overall slot, pointing to a potential best-in-game fantasy outcome. The broader outlook favors explosive, pass-catching profiles that can stack receptions in PPR formats.

McCaffrey’s workload managed

Christian McCaffrey is still expected to deliver elite per-game production, but cumulative totals could narrow if his workload is managed. That scenario may tighten the tier behind Achane and open value pockets for drafters prioritizing durable volume and receiving roles.

Scoring settings and preseason variables

PPR scoring skews values

The analysis references PPR scoring for fantasy point totals, which can accentuate pass-catching running backs and mobile quarterbacks. Managers should align rankings to league settings, as reception bonuses and rushing points can materially reshuffle tiers.

Monitor camps and depth charts

As training camps open and depth charts settle, assumptions around usage, health and offensive philosophy will adjust, and rankings are expected to move accordingly. Managers should track camp reports, preseason usage and injury updates through August, as any change in roles or availability could materially alter these early 2026 projections.