Dollar rises as escalating Middle East war spurs haven demand

The U.S. dollar strengthened on Monday, March 23, as investors shifted toward assets viewed as safer amid escalating tensions in the Middle East.

The move lifted the greenback against the euro, Japanese yen, and Australian dollar, while U.S. government bond yields also rose toward recent highs.

Risk-off trading lifts the dollar

The dollar index, which tracks the currency against six major peers, edged up 0.08% to 99.62.

The euro slipped 0.16% to $1.1552, while the yen weakened 0.14% to 159.45 per dollar during Asian hours.

The Australian dollar fell 0.43% to $0.6993, alongside a broader decline in Asian equities that signaled reduced risk appetite.

Geopolitics and energy sensitivity in focus

The renewed demand for dollars followed a weekend of heightened geopolitical risk, with reports citing threats by U.S. President Donald Trump against Iran’s electricity grid.

Those reports also cited Iran’s stated intention to retaliate against neighboring infrastructure, a combination that reduced expectations for a near-term easing of hostilities.

Energy markets are closely tied to Middle East stability because disruptions can raise global fuel and transportation costs, feeding into broader inflation pressures.

Rates backdrop: higher yields and cautious central banks

U.S. Treasury yields climbed, with the 10-year yield rising to 4.415%, near an eight-month high, reflecting expectations that interest rates could stay elevated.

In Europe, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England have maintained hawkish messaging, emphasizing caution about easing policy too soon as inflation risks persist.

In Japan, the Bank of Japan is reportedly weighing a rate increase as soon as April, a potential shift that markets will watch closely given the yen’s sensitivity to rate differentials.

Why this matters now

Currency and bond moves matter for global financing conditions: a firmer dollar can tighten financial conditions for borrowers with dollar-linked liabilities and can influence trade pricing.

Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency, warned the crisis could become a major threat to the world economy and said it could exceed the impact of the 1970s oil shocks.

Key uncertainties remain, including whether any infrastructure or energy flows will be disrupted and whether central banks adjust their policy paths in response to inflation risks tied to energy and transport costs.