2027 NFL mock draft projects Arch Manning No. 1 using 2026 order

Early first-round projections for the 2027 NFL Draft were published on May 20, 2026 by analyst Chris Hummer, who modeled picks to follow the same positional sequence as the 2026 draft. The exercise offers a snapshot of next year’s class while holding the order of positions constant. Texas quarterback Arch Manning is slotted first overall, with Texas edge rusher Colin Simmons projected second and Ole Miss running back Kewan Lacy third. Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith is placed fourth.

The methodology intentionally mirrors the positional pattern from 2026 rather than forecasting actual team needs or the eventual 2027 draft order. Within that framework, the projection emphasizes premium positions early but still allows for a running back in the top three, as occurred a year ago. It is an experiment designed to compare how 2027 prospects stack up when constrained by last year’s positional flow.

Manning headlines the class under these rules. The Texas passer is viewed as a top overall selection in this scenario, reflecting his trajectory and tools. The analysis notes his late-season form and mobility, and anticipates improvement around him heading into 2027, factors that support a No. 1 projection at quarterback.

Behind him, Simmons is penciled in at No. 2 after tallying 21 sacks across his first two college seasons.

Lacy follows at No. 3 off a 1,567-yard, 24-touchdown campaign for Ole Miss, combining track-caliber speed with strength through contact.

While top-three running backs have become rare, the positional template from 2026 keeps the door open for a back to land this high. Smith, described as a generational-level receiving prospect, comes off the board at No. 4 because that is where wide receiver first appeared in the 2026 sequence.

South Carolina edge Dylan Stewart is forecast at No. 5, while Notre Dame standouts Leonard Moore and Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa are slotted at No. 6 (cornerback) and No. 7 (linebacker), respectively.

Method mirrors 2026 positional sequence

Quarterback leads early board

Replicating the 2026 pattern means a quarterback opens the draft again, which keeps Manning at No. 1 in this exercise. The projection points to his physical tools and expected supporting cast as reasons he could retain pole position, even in a class that also features premium edge and receiver talent.

Front-seven talent packs the top five

The early run on front-seven defenders continues with Simmons and Stewart inside the top five. Simmons’ two-year sack total and pursuit speed power his case, while Stewart’s frame and first step fit the archetype that regularly goes early. Viliamu-Asa’s inclusion at No. 7 underscores the class’s depth on defense, though his medical history remains a key variable for teams to study.

Receivers and linemen in the top-10 mix

Jeremiah Smith headlines wideouts

Smith’s placement at No. 4 is a function of the format rather than a cap on his ceiling. At 6-foot-3 with rare playmaking traits for his age, he is portrayed as the clear WR1 in this cycle. The model’s constraints keep him behind a quarterback and two front-seven picks, but his profile suggests he could rise regardless of positional runs once real boards form.

Offensive tackles emerge as anchors

The projection also elevates offensive tackles into the top 10, with Jordan Seaton (LSU) and Trevor Goosby (Texas) flagged as early candidates. Seaton’s pass protection and athleticism will be tested in the SEC in 2026, while Goosby brings size and upside after returning to school. Their development over the next season will shape how the top half of the round sorts out at a premium position.

As with any May projection, the board will evolve with 2026 college performance, health, and the eventual NFL draft order. Team needs, quarterback movement and medicals will ultimately determine how closely the 2027 first round resembles this positional experiment. Evaluations will sharpen after the 2026 season and the pre-draft process.