After Iran, is Cuba next on Trump’s foreign policy agenda?

President Donald Trump’s remark that Cuba “wants to make a deal” with the United States but will have to wait until Washington finishes dealing with Iran highlights the administration’s strategic sequencing at a moment when the Caribbean island faces its deepest economic and social crisis in decades.

Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One on Sunday, Trump said the United States was already in contact with Cuban officials but indicated the Middle East remains the administration’s immediate focus.

“I think we will pretty soon either make a deal or do whatever we have to do,” Trump said. “We’re talking to Cuba, but we’re going to do Iran before Cuba.”

The comments come as economic hardship in Cuba is intensifying and sporadic protests are resurfacing across the island. On Saturday, demonstrators in the central city of Morón threw rocks and set fire to a local Communist Party office, according to state media, which said five people were arrested and one person was hospitalized.

The unrest reflects growing public frustration with prolonged electricity outages, fuel shortages and rising food prices.

Cuba’s crisis deepens

Cuba is currently facing one of its most severe economic contractions since the collapse of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s. A combination of declining tourism revenue, fuel shortages, U.S. sanctions, and structural inefficiencies in the state-run economy has pushed the country into prolonged instability.

Electricity shortages have become a central symbol of the crisis. Rolling blackouts lasting several hours a day have become routine across much of the island, reflecting both aging infrastructure and difficulty importing fuel.

The tightening of U.S. sanctions enforcement under Trump has further constrained Cuba’s energy supply. Washington has increased pressure on shipping networks and foreign suppliers delivering oil to the island, contributing to an effective fuel blockade that analysts say has exacerbated the blackout crisis.

The economic downturn has triggered a surge in migration. Over the past three years, hundreds of thousands of Cubans have left the country, with many heading toward the United States through Central America and Mexico.

The scale of the exodus has drained the country’s workforce and added another layer of strain to an already fragile economy.

Havana signals openness to talks

Against this backdrop, Cuban officials appear increasingly open to exploring some form of dialogue with Washington, according to analysts who follow the island.

For Havana, the immediate objective would likely be economic relief rather than sweeping political rapprochement.

Key priorities could include securing access to fuel shipments, restoring financial channels and expanding tourism and remittance flows from the United States.

Sanctions tied to Cuba’s designation by Washington as a state sponsor of terrorism have severely limited the island’s ability to conduct international banking transactions, complicating trade and investment.

Any easing of restrictions could provide short-term economic breathing room for the government.

But meaningful relief from U.S. sanctions would likely require concessions from Havana.

Possible demands from Washington

If negotiations move forward, U.S. officials are expected to seek tangible steps from Cuba in exchange for any easing of economic pressure.

These could include the release of political prisoners detained after previous protests, expanded space for private enterprise and cooperation on migration controls.

Migration remains a key issue for Washington. The surge in Cuban migrants arriving at the U.S. border in recent years has added pressure on an already strained immigration system.

A negotiated framework that reduces irregular migration flows would align with U.S. domestic political priorities.

Security concerns may also play a role. U.S. policymakers have long monitored Cuba’s security relationships with external powers such as Russia and China, given the island’s proximity to the United States.

Trump’s comment that Iran will come “before Cuba” reflects broader constraints on U.S. foreign policy bandwidth.

Washington is currently managing multiple major geopolitical challenges, including tensions with Iran in the Middle East, the war in Ukraine and strategic competition with China.

These overlapping commitments limit the likelihood of the United States launching a major new diplomatic or military initiative focused on Cuba in the near term.

While Cuba remains strategically sensitive due to its location roughly 90 miles from Florida, it is not currently viewed as a top-tier security threat compared with other global flashpoints.

A large-scale U.S. intervention in Cuba is widely seen as improbable. Such a move would carry significant political and military costs and could destabilize the broader Caribbean region.

More likely is a continuation of the current strategy, combining economic pressure with selective diplomatic engagement.

Strategic options for Washington

U.S. policymakers broadly face three options in dealing with the evolving crisis on the island.

The first is to maintain the current sanctions-based pressure campaign, with the expectation that economic strain will eventually force the Cuban government to pursue deeper reforms.

The second option would involve further escalating economic measures, tightening restrictions on shipping networks and financial transactions linked to Cuba.

However, this approach risks worsening humanitarian conditions and accelerating migration flows toward the United States.

A third path would involve limited negotiations aimed at stabilizing the island’s economic situation while securing concessions from Havana.

Such talks could focus on targeted issues such as energy supplies, migration cooperation and humanitarian relief without attempting a full normalization of relations.

Uncertain trajectory

Whether Cuba and the United States ultimately reach a deal remains unclear.

The Cuban leadership has historically resisted political reforms that could threaten the Communist Party’s grip on power, while U.S. administrations have been reluctant to offer major sanctions relief without significant concessions.

For now, Trump’s comments suggest the administration sees the Cuba question as an issue that can be addressed later — once more immediate geopolitical challenges are resolved.

But analysts warn that worsening economic conditions and sporadic unrest on the island could push the situation toward a more urgent crisis, forcing Washington to engage sooner than anticipated.