UK Fuel Prices Rise Amid Middle East Instability

UK fuel prices are trending upward as the collapse of peace negotiations regarding the US-Israel conflict with Iran disrupts global energy supply chains. As of March 2, 2026, Brent crude oil prices have climbed to approximately $98 per barrel, reversing a temporary decline that followed a short-lived framework agreement in June.

The mechanism driving this volatility is the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime chokepoint through which roughly 20 percent of global oil and liquefied natural gas typically transits. The renewed instability has constrained supply, forcing wholesale costs higher. Because crude oil serves as the primary feedstock for petrol and diesel, analysts estimate that every $10 increase in the price of a barrel of oil translates to a roughly 7p per litre rise at the pump.

Retail price adjustments typically lag behind wholesale market shifts by approximately 14 days due to the time required for oil transportation and refining. Current data from the RAC indicates average prices have reached 153.46p per litre for petrol and 168.55p per litre for diesel. While these figures remain below the record highs observed during the 2022 energy crisis, market analysts anticipate sustained upward pressure on consumer costs as long as wholesale oil prices remain near the $100 per barrel threshold.